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Re: (meteorobs) The Y2K Leonids: what if it's cloudy?
I'm a bit of a meteor dilletante (I only subscribe to Meteorobs around Leonids
time, don't do formal observations, etc.) But in this case, fortunately, I am
probably more of a weather hobbyist than meteor hobbyist; certainly far more
knowledgeable. I have extensive experience in looking at computer models, etc.
First off...you simply are not going to be able to forecast viewing conditions
up and down the East Coast FIVE days in advance with enough certainty to even
BEGIN to plan travel..2-3 days, yes. More than three...no way.
So keep that in mind.
Second, the NWS and other major forecast outlets don't really care about the
very fine details of overhead visibility in long term forecasts since
99.99999999% of the public doesn't care about that either...you'll have to do it
on your own.
Your best resource is going to be:
http://www.arl.noaadot gov/ready/cmet.html
This has selectable output maps for a variety of computer models...there are
probably a dozen or so different computer models from the US, Europe, etc often
with wildly varying output and I doubt that the average list reader would want
to consider them all.
This page offers US model output, and most importantly, you can specify cloud
cover output.
The models to look at here are the:
AVN..this is run 4 times a day at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z..however, it takes so long to
run the output does not arrive till approximately 4-5 hours later than the
"initial time" (0Z run is out 4-5Z, etc.) The forecast is out to 84 hours or 3
1/2 days.
You want to look at "Interactive forecast maps" and "AVN 191"...
You can specify a map size and location based on lat-longs.......anywhere you
want.....and one of the fields you can plot is "total cloud cover" in whatever
increments you choose.dot it goes by percentages, so choosing 10 as an increment
gives you contours every 10% of total cloud cover.
The ETA 40 is higher resolution (more detailed grid), runs at the same times as
the AVN (4 times a day) comes out about an hour quicker, but it only goes out to
60 hours at 0Z and 12Z, and only 48 hours at 6 and 18Z.
However, you can look at total cloud cover forecasts AND forecast for low, mid,
and high clouds. I found the ETA to be very accurate for cloud forecasting the
last two Leonids. ETA is Continental United States only, however.
Finally, of course, for day-of-the-storm last minute drive choices, you can't
beat satellite.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasadot gov/GOES/
offers user-selectable zoomed satellite loops of both visible (daylight) and
infrared (around the clock)..for any area of the country.
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