[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]

(meteorobs) The Leonids: weather prospects for the US East Coast

    This is the first of series of weather outlooks that will periodically be 
transmitted concerning weather prospects for this year's Leonid meteor 
shower.  Since this year's display is anticipated to be most active over a 
two-night interval (November 16-17 and 17-18) and the best region for 
visibility apparently will be along the Eastern Seaboard of the US, these 
outlooks will be prepared specifically for these time frames and that 
particular geographic region.

    The latest series of long-range maps indicates that an upper-level 
disturbance over the southwestern US, will spawn a low-pressure system over 
the western Gulf of Mexico during the day on Thursday, November 16.  This 
system is then predicted to move northeast along the east coast, reaching a 
point just to the south and east of Long Island by early Saturday morning. 

    Should this scenario pan-out, prospective viewers in the northeast states 
"might" have a view of some Leonid activity on the night of November 16-17, 
although clouds from the southern system will be working northward and could 
interfere before the night is over.  November 17-18 would be lost as the 
storm moves in and through the region.

    Viewers across much of the southeast states would likely be plagued by 
the northward-moving storm on November 16-17, but stand a fair chance of 
getting into a rapidly improving weather pattern to the rear of the departing 
storm on the following night (November 17-18).

    In the Middle-Atlantic States, there is a possibility of a double 
cloud-out, with November 16-17 being lost to the advancing storm moving up 
from the south and with clouds lingering across the region behind the system 
on November 17-18.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED that this outlook is for events 7 to 8 days in advance and 
is certainly subject to change!  While there is a likelyhood that some sort 
of a significant disturbance will indeed affect the eastern US late next 
week, the exact timing of when it will be moving through is still somewhat in 
doubt.  Over the past two days for example, the MRF (Medium Range Forecast) 
model has been strongly hinting that this system will actually move faster 
than the current consensus suggests.  It thus would not be at all surprising 
if this low pressure storm system actually tracks up the coast 12 to perhaps 
as much as 24 hours faster than the current thinking.  This could mean a 
clearing trend for the night of November 17-18 for much of the US East Coast 
(November 16-17 being lost to all except perhaps Florida).    

Hopefully the pattern will come more into focus over the next few days so 
that observing plans may be made accordingly!

-- joe rao 
To UNSUBSCRIBE from the 'meteorobs' email list, use the Web form at:
http://www.tiacdot net/users/lewkaren/meteorobs/subscribe.html