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RE: (meteorobs) Leonid meteor shower Weather Outlook #2



A few comments on Joe's weather outlooks.

	First of all, any projections 6 and 7 days in advance such as todays 
should be considered guidance at best. With the current long range 
forecasts, and the weather pattern in the US makes a transition from the 
stable pattern of the last few weeks toward a more normal November fast 
moving variable situation, it is an exceedingly difficult time to predict 
so far in the future. I'm sure Joe would agree. The situation certainly 
will be much clearer by next Monday or Tuesday.

	In addition, I would like to commend, and profusely thank Joe for sharing 
with us his efforts. There are very few (i.e. NO) meteorolgists with the 
guts to forecast weather for astronomers. A forecast from your local 
station that says "fair" can mean a crystal clear night, or one with a thin 
layer of cirrus that can make astronomical observations useless. So what he 
is trying to do is an unbelievably difficult task, and as someone who has 
attmpted to do this, with moderate success, I can truly appreciate his 
efforts. No matter how accurate, someone is likely to expect clear and get 
cloudy or vice versa. The best advice is to keep yourself flexible until 
early next week, and be prepared to move fast as we get closer the the 
potential peak nights. And keep up on the very latest information, right 
here on meteorobs! :-)

	Thanks again, Joe!!

Wayne

----------
From: 	Skywayinc@aol.com[SMTP:Skywayinc@aol.com]
Sent: 	Friday, November 10, 2000 11:16 AM
To: 	undisclosed-recipients:;
Subject: 	(meteorobs) Leonid meteor shower Weather Outlook #2

    This is the second weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower, 
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18.  As
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to 
see
this year's display will will restrict this weather outlook to this part of 
the country.  More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at
                 <A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

GENERAL SYNOPSIS: The latest long-range charts suggest that the low 
pressure
system that we were concerned with in yesterday's discussion, is now being
depicted to take a somewhat faster and more southerly track.  In addition . 
.
. the system appears less intense as compared to yesterday.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING

    The night starts off with an inverted low pressure trough over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  A low pressure system is rapidly ejected from this 
trough, reaching the vicinity of Waycross, Georgia by daybreak on Friday.
Showery rains and a few embedded thunderstorms could stretch from the 
Florida
Panhandle, through much of northern Florida . . . on north through the
Carolinas and southern Virginia by Friday morning.  The best region for
visibility of the Leonids would appear to be in the northeast US, but even
here viewing conditions appear marginal at best with scattered to broken
cloudiness.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING

    The storm is depicted to be ~150 miles east of Cape Hatteras at the 
start
of the night and moving rapidly away to the east-northeast.  Lingering 
rains
may still be affecting the Carolinas and areas just off the coastline of 
the
northeast US at the start of the night.  As the night progresses and as the 
storm exits and intensifies offshore, a slot of dry and clear weather 
should
develop to west and south of its projected track, bringing clear -- or
clearing skies from Florida all the way north to perhaps NYC and southern 
New
England by daybreak Saturday.  Of course, the peak of the shower is due at
around 2:51 a.m., so assiduous observers might have to consider moving 
south
if the clearing does not appear to be reaching them in time!

Of the two viewing nights, this second night holds the most promise for 
east
coast observers.

Next update: hopefully late morning/early afternoon on Saturday
-- joe rao
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