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(meteorobs) Meteor Activity Outlook for November 10-16, 2000




The moon is full on Saturday November 11. With the moon posing a major
problem throughout the entire night I would recommend that everyone save
their energy for the upcoming Leonid display (which will be discussed at 
later in this article) The positions listed below are for the active
showers this week and are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning
November 11/12. The positions do not change greatly day to day so these
positions may be used during this entire period.

Delta Eridanids   03:40   (055)  -02
Antihelion        04:20   (065)  +21
Zeta Puppids      07:44   (116)  -42
Northern Apex     09:20   (140)  +29
Southern Apex     09:20   (140)  -01

For those who plan ahead here are the details on next weeks Leonid
display. The Leonids will become active around Tuesday November 14. With
a bright moon in the sky the entire morning it would be very difficult
to see any activity this early. Even under moonless skies the rate would
be in the order of 1 per hour at this time. As the weekend approaches
the rates slowly increase but the moon will still be a major nuisance.
This year worthwhile observations will most likely be limited to Friday
morning the 17th and Saturday morning the 18th. The primary Leonid
maximum is predicted to occur when the earth crosses the node of comet
Temple-Tuttle near 08:00 Universal Time on November 17. This corresponds
to 3:00 am EST and midnight PST. The east coast of North America and
South America will be favored as the Leonid radiant (located at 10:12
(153) +22) will be located higher in the sky therefore more activity can
be seen. 

No one knows exactly how strong this maximum will be. The last quarter
moon will be a major factor as it will obscure the fainter shower
members, which are numerous with the Leonids. While the possibility
exists for a storm, considering all factors this possibility seems
remote. Leonid meteors seen on the morning of the 17th are most likely
produced by the returns of Temple-Tuttle during 1965 and 1932.

On the following morning there exists two more opportunities for
enhanced Leonid activity. On November 18 at 03:45 Universal Time the
earth will pass through the outer edges of the dust trail created in
1733. Since this is not a central passage rates are not expected to be
great. At this time the Leonid radiant is in a favorable position for
Europe and Africa.

The second passage will occur some four hours later near 07:50 Universal
Time. Eastern North America and South America will be the favored
locations for this enhancement. At this time the earth will pass the
outer edges of the dust trail created in 1866. Once again rates are not
expected to be particularly impressive, especially when compared to the
storm rates that were witnessed last year.

Leonid rates will dwindle toward zero as the earth exits the stream of
Leonid particles. This will occur around November 21.

Clear Skies!
Robert Lunsford
AMS Visual Program Coordinator
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