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Re: (meteorobs) Leonid meteor shower Weather Outlook #2

In a message dated 11/10/00 7:36:42 PM Eastern Standard Time, johnk@dmv.com 
writes:

<< One thing is, right now, the only publicly avaliable model extending 
beyond 7
 days is the 10-day MRF... >>

    An interesting point concerning the MRF (or as we forecasters lovingly 
refer to it as:  "The Murph").  One should also look at the day-to-day trends 
with each computer run -- especially for those runs that are made beyond 120 
hours.  As an example: for Saturday, at 0h UTC (November 17 at 7 p.m. EST), 
the MRF at 240-hours had a weak inverted low pressure trough in the western 
Gulf of Mexico.  The 216-hour run had a very well-defined low pressure system 
centered over near Danville, Virginia.  At 192-hours, this same disturbance 
was shifted over to a position about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras.  So . . 
. the difference between what the MRF computer model indicated through 48 
hours and over three different runs is striking:  the same storm for next 
Friday evening is depicted in three different places spread out over a 
difference of 1500 miles!  

    The current trend seems to be to move this feature along at a 
progressively faster rate.  On two of these three runs, it was also depicted 
as a relatively weak system.  I would not be surprised if the Saturday MRF 
run has the storm even a bit farther out to sea.  In truth, we probably wont 
have a real good "fix" on this storm's potential position until Monday -- 
when the model run guidance reaches the critical 120-hour mark.

    And I wouldn't completely scoff at weather predictions made beyond a 
5-day interval.  Certainly, we along the US East Coast are very much aware at 
this moment what the all-important weather feature is that we all should 
focus on for Leonid observations next Thursday and Friday nights: namely low 
pressure emerging from out of the Gulf of Mexico and tracking up along the 
coast.  It should, at the very least, give prospective observers a chance to 
consider what travel options they might wish to explore.  

Things should (hopefully) come into much greater focus by Monday!

-- joe rao
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