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(meteorobs) Leonid Meteor Shower weather outlook #3

    This is the third weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower, 
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18.  As 
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to see 
this year's display will will restrict this weather outlook to this part of 
the country.  More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:  
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at 
                 <A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

GENERAL SYNOPSIS: The latest computer guidance continues with the idea of a 
storm emerging from the southern states and tracking to the north and east 
along the eastern seaboard.  The track of this system is somewhat more to the 
north and west of yesterday's run, as well as making it a bit stronger. 

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: The storm is positioned over eastern Oklahoma 
at the start of the night and moves to central Tennessee by Friday morning.  
High pressure will be departing the East Coast and likely will cause south to 
southwest winds both at the surface and aloft, helping to transport 
increasing amounts of moisture.  Just about everyone along the Eastern 
Seaboard should see clouds on the increase during the night . . . the farther 
south and west one goes, the quicker the spread of cloud cover.  It would not 
be surprising if the entire east coast were under broken-to-overcast skies by 
Friday morning!  Of course, there would also be widespread precipitation . . 
. steady rain and drizzle to the north of the storm track and scattered heavy 
showers and thunderstorms to the south of the storm track.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING:  The storm system is depicted to be over the 
Delmarva Peninsula by nightfall on Friday . . . intensifying and heading to a 
position roughly 200 miles east of Cape Cod by Saturday morning.  Clearing 
skies will probably be found in a developing "slot" of drier air that will 
work its way up the coast from Florida.  A sharp cold front, in fact, could 
be oriented across central Florida and moving rapidly away to the east on 
Friday evening.  The speed as to which the clearing spreads northward is 
debatable and depends a lot on how quickly the storm intensifies.  By Leonid 
time (2:51 a.m. EST), it could reach as far north as the Carolinas to south 
Jersey.  It is still too early to say.

FINAL COMMENT:  I have noticed a trend of speeding this coastal system up 
with each passing run of the MRF (Medium Range Model).  As an example, for 
the Friday, 7 p.m. EST time frame, the 240-hour forecast (issued on 
Wednesday) positioned the storm in the western Gulf of Mexico . . . south of 
Louisiana.  The 216-hour forecast placed the storm near Danville, Virginia.  
The 192-hour forecast moved it to off the coast of North Carolina, while the 
latest 168-hour forecast places it over the Delmarva region.  Since model 
guidance usually starts coming more into focus from 120-hours onward, we can 
argue that the actual position of this low pressure system might eventually 
end up even further to the north -- perhaps even up near Long Island or 
southern New England -- by Friday evening.  This at least would bring hope of 
a faster clearing process working its way north up the eastern seaboard 
during Friday night/Saturday morning.  

In short . . . those who plan to be mobile, might seriously start thinking 
about heading south, down the coast for Friday night.

Next update: early afternoon on Sunday (after I get back from church . . . no 
doubt I'll be doing a lot of praying!)
-- joe rao 
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