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(meteorobs) 17th looking bad for East Coast cloudwise on the AVN
http://www.arl.noaadot gov/ready-bin/arlplot1.pl?metdata=AVN+191+km
New AVN is out, this run extends to 12Z the 17th..
Has a function for plotting "total cloud cover". I usually do it in increments
of 10; which gives increments from 0% to 100% cloud cover. My experience has
been that anything higher than 0 or 10% cloud cover on the model essentially
translates to totally ruined seeing in real life.. Of course, there may be
scattered breaks in clouds beyond the resolution of the model (the ETA cloud
maps are quite a bit better, a higher res model, but the ETA only forecasts
ahead 60 hours, not 84 hours as the AVN does.
The entire East Coast (actually, the whole third of the country, it seems) is
socked in that night. A brief clear area over central Florida, and a tiny
bullseye of 20-30% cloud cover forms over Maryland and gradually moves north and
extends into a narrow slot NE to NJ of 40-50% cloud cover, but even that is
pretty marginal.
Other than that the first clear skies aren't till you get to Arkansas.
John Krempasky
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