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(meteorobs) (no subject)



    This is the sixth weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower, 
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18.  As 
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to see 
this year's display we will restrict this weather outlook to this part of the 
country.  More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:  
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at 
                 <A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

GENERAL SYNOPSIS: It appears that two key weather systems will impact viewing 
potential viewing of the Leonid Meteors along the US East Coast later this 
week:  a storm that will sweep across the Great Lakes, toward the Canadian 
Maritimes, while a secondary storm system emerges from the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico and passes off the Middle Atlantic Seaboard.  The Great Lakes system 
will be rather starved for moisture, though it will contain a rather potent 
shot of upper-atmospheric energy.  Conversely, the Gulf system will not be 
particularly strong, but will carry considerable amounts of moisture.  The 
two systems are expected to "join-forces" off the Mid-Atlantic coast on 
Friday evening, evolving into a major ocean storm near Nova Scotia by early 
Saturday.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: A band of broken-to-overcast skies should 
extend across Virginia, the Carolinas, much of Georgia and into northern 
Florida and the Panhandle region.  Showers and a few imbedded thunderstorms 
should fall from the Gulf Coast, north to perhaps southern sections of 
Virginia.  Much of this unsettled weather will be directly attributable to 
the low pressure system emerging from the Gulf of Mexico.  

    It may now surprise observers to hear that there is actually a "chance" 
that some good breaks and holes in the cloud cover might be found on this 
night from the upper Tennessee and lower Ohio River Valley . . . eastward 
across Pennsylvania and into southern New England!  These regions will be 
in-between the Great Lakes Low and the Gulf Low.  The basis for this 
reasoning is that most of the latest computer guidance models are suggesting 
a "corridor" of dry air at mid and low levels across these regions that might 
lead to some "sucker holes" in what would otherwise be considered by local 
forecasters to be a mostly cloudy environment.  

    Also . . . south Florida should be far enough to the east and south of 
the Gulf system to avoid significant cloud cover, although local onshore 
ocean winds could make the east coast cloudier than the west coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING:  The Gulf Low and Great Lakes Low begin 
consolidating into a major low pressure system along the Mid-Atlantic coast 
on Friday evening . . . then rapidly sweeps away to the north and east.  
Frequently, when this happens, clearing skies are found to the rear of the 
departing storm and this should indeed be the case.  In fact . . . a broad 
area of partly cloudy-to-clear skies should quickly develop across much of 
the lower Ohio River Valley . . . south-central Pennsylvania . . . central 
New Jersey and all points south, down the east coast to south-central 
Florida.  

    Problem areas would be across the upper Ohio Valley, northern 
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, New York State and New England where 
clouds may be slower to leave.  Part of the problem may be an upper-level 
trough that will be swinging through these regions, immediately behind the 
departing offshore storm.  Another problem will be the increasingly unstable 
west-northwest surface winds which, upon passing over the Great Lakes and 
interacting with hilly terrain can cause considerable cloud cover as well as 
localized showers of rain (or snow!). 

    Nonetheless, even in this region, large openings in the clouds may occur 
. . . especially for observers along the immediate coastal plain.  But if you 
really want to guarantee yourself a clear sky, the advice here is: head south!

    Another problem area may turn out to be south Florida, where the cold 
front from the departing storm may lag and produce some cloudiness and even a 
stray shower.  The rest of the state, however, should fare quite well.        

Next update will be sent by late Wednesday morning.
-- joe rao 
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