[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]
(meteorobs) (no subject)
This is the sixth weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower,
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18. As
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to see
this year's display we will restrict this weather outlook to this part of the
country. More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at
<A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>
GENERAL SYNOPSIS: It appears that two key weather systems will impact viewing
potential viewing of the Leonid Meteors along the US East Coast later this
week: a storm that will sweep across the Great Lakes, toward the Canadian
Maritimes, while a secondary storm system emerges from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and passes off the Middle Atlantic Seaboard. The Great Lakes system
will be rather starved for moisture, though it will contain a rather potent
shot of upper-atmospheric energy. Conversely, the Gulf system will not be
particularly strong, but will carry considerable amounts of moisture. The
two systems are expected to "join-forces" off the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Friday evening, evolving into a major ocean storm near Nova Scotia by early
Saturday.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: A band of broken-to-overcast skies should
extend across Virginia, the Carolinas, much of Georgia and into northern
Florida and the Panhandle region. Showers and a few imbedded thunderstorms
should fall from the Gulf Coast, north to perhaps southern sections of
Virginia. Much of this unsettled weather will be directly attributable to
the low pressure system emerging from the Gulf of Mexico.
It may now surprise observers to hear that there is actually a "chance"
that some good breaks and holes in the cloud cover might be found on this
night from the upper Tennessee and lower Ohio River Valley . . . eastward
across Pennsylvania and into southern New England! These regions will be
in-between the Great Lakes Low and the Gulf Low. The basis for this
reasoning is that most of the latest computer guidance models are suggesting
a "corridor" of dry air at mid and low levels across these regions that might
lead to some "sucker holes" in what would otherwise be considered by local
forecasters to be a mostly cloudy environment.
Also . . . south Florida should be far enough to the east and south of
the Gulf system to avoid significant cloud cover, although local onshore
ocean winds could make the east coast cloudier than the west coast.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: The Gulf Low and Great Lakes Low begin
consolidating into a major low pressure system along the Mid-Atlantic coast
on Friday evening . . . then rapidly sweeps away to the north and east.
Frequently, when this happens, clearing skies are found to the rear of the
departing storm and this should indeed be the case. In fact . . . a broad
area of partly cloudy-to-clear skies should quickly develop across much of
the lower Ohio River Valley . . . south-central Pennsylvania . . . central
New Jersey and all points south, down the east coast to south-central
Florida.
Problem areas would be across the upper Ohio Valley, northern
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, New York State and New England where
clouds may be slower to leave. Part of the problem may be an upper-level
trough that will be swinging through these regions, immediately behind the
departing offshore storm. Another problem will be the increasingly unstable
west-northwest surface winds which, upon passing over the Great Lakes and
interacting with hilly terrain can cause considerable cloud cover as well as
localized showers of rain (or snow!).
Nonetheless, even in this region, large openings in the clouds may occur
. . . especially for observers along the immediate coastal plain. But if you
really want to guarantee yourself a clear sky, the advice here is: head south!
Another problem area may turn out to be south Florida, where the cold
front from the departing storm may lag and produce some cloudiness and even a
stray shower. The rest of the state, however, should fare quite well.
Next update will be sent by late Wednesday morning.
-- joe rao
To UNSUBSCRIBE from the 'meteorobs' email list, use the Web form at:
http://www.tiacdot net/users/lewkaren/meteorobs/subscribe.html