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(meteorobs) Leonid Weather Forecast #7



    This is the seventh weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower, 
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18.  As 
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to see 
this year's display we will restrict this weather outlook to this part of the 
country.  More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:  
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at 
                 <A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

GENERAL SYNOPSIS: Two low pressure systems and their attendant weather fronts 
are going to be main players for prospective Leonid observers in the Eastern 
US.  It appears that Friday night/Saturday morning will be, by far, the 
better night so far as overall weather conditions are concerned.  Low 
pressure will move across southern Ontario province during Thursday night and 
will likely be centered near Sudbury by Friday morning.  A cold front will 
extend south from this low, across western New York State, to the western 
Carolinas and down through the Florida panhadle.  By Friday morning, a new 
low pressure wave will be developing near Fayetteville, NC and will begin 
moving northeastward while intensifying.  All the computer guidance models 
take the Fayetteville storm off the Carolina coast by late Friday, eventually 
merging with the Sudbury storm and becoming a powerful system near Cape 
Breton Island, Nova Scotia by daybreak on Saturday.  Drier and clearer air 
should sweep in behind these consolidating disturbances during Friday night.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING:  There is little hope for any widespread clear 
weather anywhere in the eastern US this night.  Not only will clouds prevail 
. . . but in a roughly 150-mile wide band centered from near New Orleans, LA, 
northeast to Norfolk, VA, scattered heavy showers and inbedded thunderstorms 
will likely occur.  South-central and south Florida look to offer the best 
hope of any reasonably clear sky.  Climatology would further dictate 
observation be made along Florida's west coast as opposed to the east coast, 
as to avoid any local ocean cloudiness and/or patchy ground fog.  Clearing 
will also be working steadily into southernmost sections of Illinois, Indiana 
and western sections of Kentucky and Tennessee -- for those who might be so 
inclined to head in that direction!  

    It again should also be noted here, for those who grasp at straws, that 
there is -- albeit a slim hope -- for some localized "sucker holes" in the 
cloud deck to periodically occur across the lower Ohio Valley, much of 
Pennsylvania, southern New York and southern New England.  Some drier air 
located at the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere in a corridor between the 
developing low in North Carolina and the Ontario low "might" help to promote 
these brief and unexpected clear 
spots . . . but there is no way in being able to predict where or when they 
might happen, even just a few hours in advance. 

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING:  The two storm systems join forces over the 
Atlantic waters and rapidly push away to the north and east, becoming a 
powerful gale center near Cape Breton, Nova Scotia by Saturday morning.  A 
sweep of dry and clear air should rapidly punch through much of the Eastern 
Seaboard as darkness begins to descend.  Clear to scattered clouds should be 
the rule for much of the Ohio Valley, eastward to central and southern New 
Jersey and south through the Carolinas.  

The CLEAREST and DRIEST conditions are likely to be over central and eastern 
Virginia and eastern North Carolina. 

    Across a region which includes western NY, northeast PA, northern NJ, 
southeastern NY and much of southern New England, scattered to occasionally 
broken cloudiness should be expected, thanks to a cold and unstable 
northwesterly wind.  In orographically favored localities, a brief passing 
shower of rain or even wet snow cannot be ruled out.  

    This forecast would also probably hold true for Canadian observers in the 
Barrie-Toronto-Kitchener region.  A trek south toward Sarnia, Chatham and 
Windsor might actually improve the odds for clear skies.

    Across central and northern New England, look for chiefly broken to 
overcast skies with intermittent showers of rain or snow.  Of course, being 
closest to the evolving storm, winds will likely be gusting to over 30 and 40 
m.p.h., creating extreme wind chills -- so better to be indoors anyway.

    To the south . . . a problem.  A new wave of low pressure is forecast to 
develop by Saturday morning in the western Gulf of Mexico.  This could cause 
a cold front to stall over central Florida.  As a result . . . a swath of 
lowering and thickening clouds may develop across Alabama, Mississippi, much 
of Georgia and northern Florida.  If one were located in this region, the 
best advice is to move to the north, along the coast -- toward Georgia or . . 
. better still . . . South Carolina.  The southern-third of Florida should 
manage to avoid most of this advancing cloudiness, though even here, high 
cloudiness could drift in east from the Gulf of Mexico.

Next outlook: early Thursday afternoon.
-- joe rao
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