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(meteorobs) Leonid Weather Outlook #8

    This is the eighth weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower, 
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18.  As 
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to see 
this year's display we will restrict this weather outlook to this part of the 
country.  More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:  
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at 
                 <A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

GENERAL SYNOPSIS: Now the overall weather pattern is pretty straightforward: 
low pressure moving across lower Ontario and Quebec will merge with a wave of 
low pressure moving northeast from the Piedmont and Southeast Coast during 
the next 18-24 hours.  The two storms will be located along a cold front that 
will be progressing eastward toward the Atlantic seaboard. The end result of 
all this will be an intensifying low pressure system racing out over the 
ocean and away from the US East Coast by late Friday.

Unfortunately . . . new computer guidance has been inexplicably delayed well 
past its normal run time.  As such, I have "re-hashed" the numerical data 
that came in overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning to form the 
following outlooks.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING:  Unfortunately . . . most of the eastern 
states are going to be "socked-in" with cloud cover thanks to the cold front 
and two storm systems.  Drier/clearer conditions are to be found over 
southern sections of Illinois and Indiana; western sections of Kentucky and 
Tennessee; much of Ohio and "perhaps" as far east as northwestern 
Pennsylvania and parts of western New York State.  Also look for generally 
clear conditions across the south-half of Florida.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: The departing offshore storm should open up a 
large area of mainly clear and dry conditions for the following areas:  
Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, much of Pennsylvania, southeast New York State, 
Kentucky, the Virginias, Maryland, Delaware, The Carolinas, northern sections 
of Alabama, the northern half of Georgia and the southernmost part of Florida.

Over much of upstate and western New York and much of New England, 
scattered-to-broken cloudiness should be expected, accompanied by gusty winds 
and a small risk of a brief passing shower of rain or wet snow.  The 
variability of the cloud coverage for any one locality (broken clouds versus 
scattered clouds) will depend on just how fast the offshore storm system 
intensifies during Friday night.

Much of Florida and the Deep South may be subject to extensive high and 
mid-level cloud cover as a new wave of low pressure takes shape over the Gulf 
of Mexico.  In addition . . . the cold front associated with intensifying 
storm off the East Coast, could stall-out across central Florida, perhaps 
serving as a "channel" for moist/humid air to flow north and east from the 
Gulf.

If newer data finally becomes available later today I "may" provide another 
update by late this afternoon or this evening.
-- joe rao     
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