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(meteorobs) Leonid Weather: Nationwide outlook for Friday Night

    This will be my the eighth and final weather outlook for the Leonids.  In 
answer to many requests that I've received from observers this week, my final 
outlook has been tailored for the contiguous US, as well as southern Canada.  
I am also gratified by the number of visitors to my Leonid Meteor Website at 
<A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

    The site has been up since Sunday morning and in less than five days has 
already received nearly 1700 hits . . . most of these in just the past few 
days!  It has been most interesting in attempting to anticipate where the 
best viewing conditions for the shower would be over the past week.  Tonight 
is the night that according to several noted meteor experts (Asher, McNaught, 
Lyytinen, Van Flandern) Earth will encounter dust trails expelled by Comet 
Tempel-Tuttle in 1733 and 1866.  For much of North America, it is the 1866 
encounter (at 07:51 UTC/November 18) that will be most observable, although 
it is also possible that some long-trailed "Earth-grazing" meteors from the 
1733 encounter may be evident to those in the Northeast US (at 10:44 p.m. 
EST/November 17).  Just what these potential meteor outbursts will bring is 
unknown.  Predictions vary widely from just a couple of dozen per hour to 
perhaps approaching storm rates of 1000/hr.  Certainly it will be a night of 
high anticipation!

VIEWING SYNOPSIS:

    A large part of the eastern and central United States and a good slice of 
the western United States should have at least partly cloudy-to-clear skies 
at the time of the encounter with the 1866 dust trail (2:51 a.m. EST/11:51 
p.m. PST).  We would include the following areas:

1) Southern New England, "perhaps" as far north as southernmost sections of 
Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
2) Greater New York City area and New Jersey, including the Hudson Valley and 
eastern Pennsylvania.
3) Middle Atlantic Coast
4) Much of the Piedmont and Southeast Coast, with the exception being the 
southern-third of Georgia.
5) The southern-third of Florida (Lake Okeechobee on south)
6) Greater Ohio Valley, with the exception of northeast Ohio (where 
lake-effect snow showers may fall).
7) Upper Tennessee River Valley, and also including roughly the northern half 
of Alabama and Mississippi, as well as much of northern and central Georgia 
and most of Arkansas.
8) Chicago and Southern Great Lakes, including Milwaukee, Detroit and the 
Canadian city of Windsor.
9) Southern and eastern Iowa, much of Missouri and possibly the northeastern 
portion of Kansas
10) Rocky Mountain Region that includes much of Idaho, Nevada, Utah, eastern 
Washington and Oregon.
11) Arizona
12) The Pacific Northwest including much of Vancouver Island and extreme 
southwestern portion of British Columbia.
13) California

    Areas not included in the above listing are likely to have 
broken-to-overcast skies (60 to 100% cloud coverage) and/or some form of 
precipitation, hence making for unfavorable viewing conditions for tonight's 
Leonid shower.  

    I hope that all these weather outlooks posted during this week have been 
interesting and informative for those of you planning out your prospective 
view of this year's "Y2K Leonids."
-- joe rao 
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