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(meteorobs) Non-Asherian models bite the dust ?!
According to the very first IMO Circular about the 2001 Leonids - to
be found at http://www.egroups.com/message/imo-news/441 - there was a
moderate peak of activity around 7 UTC this morning (Nov. 17) with a ZHR
of roughly 100, but certainly no ZHR of 900 at 8:00 UTC, let alone a meteor
storm with a ZHR of 3500 to 50 000 (!) at 9:20 UTC. Both these predictions
had been treated in http://sci.esa.int/content/doc/a2/25250_.htm as equally
likely as the Asher-McNaught prediction of a shallow maximum at 7:53 UTC -
not the best judgement, given the rigorous physical nature of the latter.
(A sharp peak shortly after 8:00 UTC is also seen in radar data from
Ondrejov, presented at http://www.asudot cas.cz/~koten/radar.html .) And so,
before even the main peak of the Leonids of 2000 has arrived, can we
not say that all the alternative models are now basically gone for good?
Daniel Fischer
P.S.: A lot of Leonid 2000 links can be found in the header of
http://www.geocities.com/skyweek/mirror/210.html and the first story of
http://www.geocities.com/skyweek/mirror/209.html - did I miss a major one?
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