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Re: (meteorobs) Taurids vs. Leonids




Two quick comments from a non-theoretician on your question, Mike.

First, keep strongly in mind the idea of "statistical significance":
a sample of 2 meteors in a single period, of and by itself, doesn't
constitute a sufficient "signal" to indicate any sort of trend.

Second, although it wouldn't affect the result in this case signifi-
cantly, keep in mind that the 'r' value you assume for Sporadics of
2.5 is in fact quite low. Studies and discussions I've read in the
past point to an r-factor for Sporadics of 3.5 or even higher!

============================

Just a note for the TRUE newcomers on our list - gosh there are a
lot of "newbie ringers" out there lately... ;> The 'r' factor is a
theoretical number which can be assigned to a meteor shower, either
based on some set of actual observations or the projection of some
theory about the shower. This 'r' value is in effect a multiplier:
for every gain of 1 magnitude deeper, the theory predicts that 'r'
TIMES AS MANY meteors will occur and be (theoretically) observable.

Thus for a shower with 'r=2' (a very low number!), twice as many
magnitude-5 meteors will theoretically occur as mag 4 meteors. So
the lower the 'r-factor' in general, the "brighter" a shower will
normally appear. Note however that this does NOT mean that a real
observer under real conditions would necessarily double the hourly
counts for a meteor shower with r=2 if they lowered their Limiting
Magnitude from 4 to 5! It does however emphasize the importance of
finding a darker observing site, if you want to see more meteors.


All this is explained in much better detail in the "bible" called
"Monograph #2: Handbook for Visual Meteor Observers", published by
the IMO and available from their Secretary. I *highly* recommend
this document to anyone serious about meteor observing. You can get
info on how to order it (and on much more!) from the IMO Web site:

        http://www.imodot net

Clear skies,
Lew Gramer


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