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Re: (meteorobs) Taurids vs. Leonids
On 23 Nov 2000, at 11:40, Rainer Arlt wrote:
> Mike Linnolt wrote:
>
> > Rainer, Even after I adjust for the better LM, the Sporadic rate is
> > still significantly higher. Using r=2.5 for SPO, the correction factor
> > for HR at mag 6.6 vs. 6.1 is 2.5^0.5 = 1.58. So, this adjusts the
> > observed rate of 2 at mag 6.1 up to 2*1.58 = 3.16 which is still far
> > below what I observed the prior interval under the mag 6.6.
> >
> > I am still puzzled by the reason for the enhancement.
>
> Let's write down the actual corected sporadic rates.
>
> r=2.5 r=3.0
> ----------------------
> 11.1 +-5.5 10.9 +-5.4
> 12.8 +-4.8 12.5 +-4.7
> 5.8 +-4.1 6.2 +-4.4
> ----------------------
>
> Error margins denote the 65% confidence interval of the rate
> (more precisely the expectation value of the rate) as obtained
> by HR/sqrt(n) for samples of independent events such as meteors
> (in practically every case).
>
> The numbers tell that the rate of the second periods could
> also have been quite likely 12.8-4.8=8.0, and that of the last
> period, 5.8+4.1=9.9. The trend is reversed! It seems to remains
> impossible to distinguish a natural fluctuation of a given
> sporadic rate from something to be puzzled about.
>
It is POSSIBLE that due to statistical fluctuation, my 2nd period
count was elevated by +4.8 and simultaneously my 3rd period
count was low by -4.1, yielding a crosover as you say. However it
is EQUALLY POSSIBLE my 2nd period was low by -4.8 and my
3rd period was high by +4.1, yielding a rate of 17.6 and 1.7 for
periods 2 vs. 3 ! So isn't it most PROBABLE the actual mean value
observed represents the truth? Of course, due to the small
statistics and crossover at one limit of 65% confidence, any
conclusion from these results are weak.
As Lew said, the 'r' value of sporadics may be large (>3.5 ?), and if
so, the significance of my enhancement around the peak are even
more reduced.
Mike.
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