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Re: (meteorobs) Asher-McNaught model in doubt... (fwd)
> > Remember, our fit used an (arbitrary) double Gaussian and a similar function
> > with shallower slopes will result in an improved fit to the 2000 (and 1969)
> > data.
> >
>
> How far does this Gaussian reach? I mean, if we were lucky to
> hit the densiest part of any certain dust trail for 20 years, how many
> of these years (after the comet) would produce a storm?
Markku,
The answer would depend on the age of the dust trail. For a 1-rev dust trail,
the answer would be about 3 years, but for a 4-rev trail it could be
about 10 years. I'd have to check exactly what the model gives, but
these are probably reasonable ball-park figures. As time passes after
the comet's perihelion, the distance between the dust trails increases,
so even if the Earth were to pass through the center of the dust trail
complex, the chances of a passage through the core of a dust trail become
smaller and smaller. So while storms could occur many years after the
comet's passage, the likelihood is very small.
Cheers, Rob
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