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(meteorobs) Fwd: Dust trails of the Ursids - limits of a model...




------- Forwarded Message

From: "H.Luethen" <fb4a042@rzaixsrv2.rrz.uni-hamburgdot de>
To: <meteorobs@jovian.com>
Subject: dust trails of the Ursids - limits of a model 
Date: Fri, 29 Dec 2000 01:03:24 +0100

Hi,

It appears that the question of the rate of any Ursids 2000 outburst is still
controversal. So I decided to have my own look on the 1405 dust trail that is
proposed to be the source of the 2000 Ursids, and to compare the results with
the situation at the 1945 and 1986 outbursts.

For this I first integrated the orbit of P/Tuttle back to 1378, 1392 and 1405,
using the orbit from the JPL database, allowing for nongravitational terms A1
and A2 and for the gravitational effects of the planets. These epochs have been
suggested by Jenniskens and Lyytinen as the perihelon passages at which the
particles for the 1886, 1945 and 2000 displays have been released. Then I
generated orbits of test particles having the orbital elements of the comet at
perihelon, but different semimajor axis, and integrated those orbits to the
present time (using the gravitational effects of the major planets except
Pluto). Computation times were quite lengthy on my 366 MHz Celeron PC. For the
integrations I used the orbit integrator K11, Version 3.0 by Christian Glowinski
at an accuracy factor of 50 (for the comet integration) or 25 (for the trail
computation). Software for generating the input batch jobs for K11 and for
analysing the output files were written by myself.

I plotted the resuling rD-rE values as a function of perihelon time; this type
of plot giving a rapid overview over even the most chaotic trails.

In contrast to Leonids or Draconids, these ancient dust trails are far from
well-behaved lines. See fig1met.gif for an example of the hopefully
storm-producing Leonid trail. Arrows mark the perihelon passage times of
particle arriving at the node of their orbits at the same time as the earth. For
a storm, a high density of data points with rD-rE values close to  zero should
occur at these critical times - a requirement obviously met for 2001 and 2002.

With the Ursids, there are sometimes more or less well-shaped conserved trail
fragments. In other cases  a chaotic cloud of particles is all that remains from
an old trail . This makes  predictions sometimes very diffmcult, since even
neighbouring particles in this cloud may have  different orbital elements, eg.
nodal lengthes.

In 1945 we crossed a more or less well-behaved trail fragment (Fig2met.gif,
vertical line marking the critical time). The result was a nice ZHR 120 shower
as observed by slovak astronomers. The computed maximum from my model,  Dec. 22,
18:29 UT,  is compatible with the curve plotted in Jenniskens A&A paper (however
the decending arm of this curve remained unobserved).

In 1986, we crossed  the less dense parts of a chaotic cloud instead (Fig
2a.gif). Most of the data points scattered around the crossing point have nodal
longitudes equivalent to Dec. 22, 21:20-21:40. The published maximum is around
21:35, well compatible with this. Some data points are for earlier times
(18:49-20:49 UT). In fact, Jennsiskens curve displays a period of elevated
activity before the main peak, that reached a ZHR of 160. I'll compute a higher
resolution version of this graph, this will require time, but may help.

Now look at 2000! (Fig3met.gif) Again a quite chaotic picture, we pass outside
the main cloud, but close to a trail-like structure. However, close inspection
reveals that this trail does not extend to the crossing point with the earth.
Thus it requires non-gravitational effects to bring some of these particles into
collision with the earth. Note that the time axis in these plots represents a
much larger distance scale than the rD-rE axis ! The points at the end of this
fragment have nodal longitudes corresponding to 7:27 UT, close to the 7:29
predicted by Jenniskens and Lyytinen.

>From this pictue I would expect a much reduced rate, if any, when compared to
the 1945 display, It appears  that at both the 1986 and the 2000 displays we are
close to  the limit of the predictive power of such models. One can alert
observers based on this kind of computations, but everything is much less secure
than with the Leonids - where published rate predictions already tend to differ
by an order of magnitudes.

Thus it may be that in 2000 there was really  a shower, but at a reduced rates
when compared to 1945, and perhaps with a magnitude distribution favoring faint
meteors. Are there any telescopic observations close to the predicted time? Does
 the chzech radar record fainter of brighter meteors than Lyytinens radio
observation ?

Hartwig Luethen



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