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Re: (meteorobs) Fwd: Dust trails of the Ursids - limits of a model...
>------- Forwarded Message
>
>From: "H.Luethen" <fb4a042@rzaixsrv2.rrz.uni-hamburgdot de>
>To: <meteorobs@jovian.com>
>Subject: dust trails of the Ursids - limits of a model
>Date: Fri, 29 Dec 2000 01:03:24 +0100
>
>Hi,
>
>It appears that the question of the rate of any Ursids 2000 outburst is still
>controversal. So I decided to have my own look on the 1405 dust trail that is
>proposed to be the source of the 2000 Ursids, and to compare the results with
>the situation at the 1945 and 1986 outbursts.
>
>(Snip)
>
>With the Ursids, there are sometimes more or less well-shaped conserved trail
>fragments. In other cases a chaotic cloud of particles is all that
>remains from
>an old trail . This makes predictions sometimes very diffmcult, since even
>neighbouring particles in this cloud may have different orbital elements, eg.
>nodal lengthes.
>
>(Snip)
>
>Thus it may be that in 2000 there was really a shower, but at a reduced rates
>when compared to 1945, and perhaps with a magnitude distribution
>favoring faint
>meteors. Are there any telescopic observations close to the
>predicted time? Does
> the chzech radar record fainter of brighter meteors than Lyytinens radio
>observation ?
>
>Hartwig Luethen
The fragmentary nature of the Ursid dust trails was what I had
suggested a couple of days before the Ursid maximum occurred using my
own orbital integration program. With respect to the discrepancy
between the radio observations of Lyytinen and Ondrejov I wonder what
affects the aurora had that night? Lyytinen is in Finland and
Ondrejov is in the Czech Republic. According to images from the POES
satellite, there was a strong aurora on the night of Ursid maximum.
Gary
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