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Re: (meteorobs) Bielids



Jure A just wrote:

>   I read about the Bielid meteor storms in 19th century a while ago, and
>among other things there was a mention of the meteoroid stream being
>preturbed out of an earth crossing orbit. Then I remembered David Asher's
>talk on June Bootids at IMc2000 where he mentioned there is still some
>material (filaments) in Earth crossing orbits. Is there a possibility of
>Bielid filaments in Earht crossing orbits?

I asked myself the same question and did some dust trail computations for
the
8 trails from 1805 until the comets final breakup 1852. I integrated the
orbits until
2060. The meteor storms of 1872 and 1885 show nicely up in the model.
Of course no fresh material is introduced into the system since 1852, and
due to perturbations, most of the particles miss the earth since the early
1940ies.
So the time of the great  storms is definitively over, and even some minor
activity is inprobable.

The only interesting group of particles remaining is the 1812 trail, parts
of which still cross the earth orbit.
The next encounter will be in 2004. In my low-res plot it looks if the trail
turns away from the earths orbit  just before
the  earth arrives at the crossing point, but I have to re-check this at a
higher particle density.
A bit more promising looks the 2011 encounter, but here it appears the trail
is interrupted
shortly before it hits the earth. Maybe some non-gravitational effects can
help a bit. In 2018,
it looks quite good, but the miss distance may be a bit large (0.01 aU).
I'll do some more modelling for the 1812 trail and for some older trails.


Hartwlg Luethen



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