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Re: (meteorobs) Possible meteor shower discovery!
Despite the close node, the period of 2.5 months between the comet
passing its ascending node and the Earth reaching that point make any
meteor shower extremely unlikely. It would require dust production
at large heliocentric distances with unusually large velocity. I would
expect the only hope of any activity were if the comet has an outburst
in the near future. All dust produced within 3AU of the Sun will be
nowhere near the Earth by 2002 May.
A major problem with a comet orbit passing close to the Earth's orbit, but
a large time difference before the Earth reaches that point, is that
to sufficiently "retard" meteoroids released during the current apparition,
the orbital path of these meteoroids will also be dramatically different
and would not follow the comet's path sufficiently closely to expect a node
near the Earth's orbit.
However, I should add that I have been unable to look at the simulations
as the button does not form a link.
If one were to argue that dust was produced on a previous orbit (the
current osculating orbit is hyperbolic, but the original orbit is near
parabolic, but elliptical), then one would expect any activity to be
annual, with no strong adherence to the comet's position. Based on a
single passage, or very few passages round the Sun, the spatial density
would be extremely low, making detection of the stream unlikely.
Also, this would be a southern shower.
Cheers, Rob
Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au
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