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RE: (meteorobs) Possible meteor shower discovery!
Dear Robert,
Thanks for your comments. The link to my website is working perfectly.
Here it is again: http://gdrayer.tripod.com/WM1/WM1sim.htm. Please check
the simulations.
I know that the orbit path for the meteroids will be different from the dust
particle source's orbit path. Also, the ascending node of the comet occurs
inside Earth's orbit. I agree on the fact that for the meteor shower to be
produced, it is required an outburst from comet C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR). But we
should remember an extreme possibility, which is the comet's nucleus
disintegration. Last summer (around August 2000) we had the opportunity to
see how a long period comet such as C/1999 S4 (LINEAR) disintegrated after
its perihelium. This could also happen to C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR), and in this
case we should hope that only small meteoroids intersect the Earth's Orbit.
If the comet disintegrates, its nucleus component's orbit path will also
change. Based in this extreme possibility and in the possibilities in
between, I find possible to see some meteors (or even fireballs) in the sky
on May 2002. Please check the simulations and look at the geometry of the
orbits.
Your comments are always welcome.
Thanks,
Gregorio Drayer
----- Mensaje original -----
De: Rob McNaught
Para: meteorobs@jovian.com
CC: Adriana Ocampo ; Humberto Campins ; Charles Morris ;
metven@geocities.com ; secretary@imodot net ; webmaster@imodot net ; Alan
Pritchard ; Louis Friedman
Enviado: Miércoles, 21 de Marzo de 2001 02:08 a.m.
Asunto: Re: (meteorobs) Possible meteor shower discovery!
Despite the close node, the period of 2.5 months between the comet
passing its ascending node and the Earth reaching that point make any
meteor shower extremely unlikely. It would require dust production
at large heliocentric distances with unusually large velocity. I would
expect the only hope of any activity were if the comet has an outburst
in the near future. All dust produced within 3AU of the Sun will be
nowhere near the Earth by 2002 May.
A major problem with a comet orbit passing close to the Earth's orbit, but
a large time difference before the Earth reaches that point, is that
to sufficiently "retard" meteoroids released during the current apparition,
the orbital path of these meteoroids will also be dramatically different
and would not follow the comet's path sufficiently closely to expect a node
near the Earth's orbit.
However, I should add that I have been unable to look at the simulations
as the button does not form a link.
If one were to argue that dust was produced on a previous orbit (the
current osculating orbit is hyperbolic, but the original orbit is near
parabolic, but elliptical), then one would expect any activity to be
annual, with no strong adherence to the comet's position. Based on a
single passage, or very few passages round the Sun, the spatial density
would be extremely low, making detection of the stream unlikely.
Also, this would be a southern shower.
Cheers, Rob
Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au
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