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Re: (meteorobs) Leonids 2001 - the state of knowledge ...
In a message dated 04/11/2001 5:13:31 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
dfischer@astro.uni-bonndot de writes:
If you miss the likely Leonids meteor storm this November in Eastern
Asia or Australia, don't expect another chance: The Leonids of 2002
will be swamped by the bright light of the Full Moon - and neither
the Leonids nor any other of the famous meteor streams will cause
another meteor storm in the next 50 years or so!
There might actually be a pretty good outburst from the Giacobinids
(Draconids) display in October 2018. The Earth will be passing the node of
the parent comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner only a few weeks after the comet itself
has passed by this same region of space. The separation between the
respective orbits of Earth and comet will be roughly midway between the
situation that produced a storm in 1933 (ZHR = 5000) and a heavy shower in
1985 (ZHR = 800). Recall that Reznikov and others were able to make an
exceptionally accurate prediction of the encounter time of Earth with
cometary material in 1998 using the dust-trail method. Unfortunately, no
such projections have yet been made for 2018, but according to Don Yeomans at
NASA/JPL, the nodal crossing time should be near October 9.0 UT. The Moon
will be New on this occasion as well.
-- joe rao