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Re: (meteorobs) Leonids 2001 - the state of knowledge ...



Karl wrote: 

> >  the Leonids nor any other of the famous meteor streams will cause
> >   another meteor storm in the next 50 years or so!

Daniel might have been a bit too explicit concerning my talk. The 
streams I checked were Draconids, Bielaids and Schwassmann-
Wachmann-3ids. At least in the range of delta a0 I checked I do not 
forsee a major storm from these streams. In the case of the SW3-
ids there may be a minor shower this June, and some others in 
2011, 2017, and a better one in 2022.

> Why? Will the orbit of the comet Tempel-Tuttle be modified by the 
> gravitationnal
> forces of Jupiter or Saturn in the next years like it occured in 
> 1870 and 1898? If
> not, why won't it produce a storm around 2030 ?

 I did not check the Leonids at all (except for some tests of the 1999 
and 2001/2002 showers to verify the method). As far as I remember 
Rob McNaught's and David Asher's work, the encounters with the 
trails in the 2033 periods do not look very promising. One could also 
try to extend the computations to 2066 and 2099..., but that had no 
top priority for me :-)

As for the SW3ids, Rainer Arlt, Michael Jaeger and myself plan a 
paper in an upcoming issue of WGN, dealing with the desintegration 
of the comet in 1995 and possible encounters with the 1995 and 
other trails in the years to 2030. 

Hartwig

H. Luethen
h.luthen@botanik.uni-hamburgdot de
priv: Behnstr. 13, D-22767 Hamburg
lab: Institut fuer Allgemeine Botanik, Ohnhorststr. 18
     D-22609 Hamburg, Germany
Tel: 0049 (0)40-3800551 priv
     0049 (0)40-428-16-346



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