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(meteorobs) predictions for Perseids 2001?

from http://Web.InfoAvedot net/~meteorobs/namnnotes0108.html:

"Perseid meteor rates are expected to have several peaks - at 14 hours UT
and at 17 hours UT on August 12th. UT refers to Universal Time, over in
Greenwich,
England, so calculate your local time accordingly. For example, 14 hours UT
on August 12th, converted to Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) for someone on the
east
coast of North America, would translate to 14 minus 12 hours equals 2 p.m.
at Greenwich, which would be 10 a.m. in North America, with the 4 hour time

difference."

At my latitutde (35 deg north) in S. California/USA, Perseus begins to
clear the horizon around 10 pm Aug. 12.  This would somewhat coincide
nicely with 17hr UT - 8 (or 7) = 9am (or 10am) local time.  [ I can'
remember which one to use, for daylight savings time ].  Has anyone
observed earthgrazing Perseids?  I've seen earthgrazing Leonids & Geminids,
they are really spectacular.  I'd like to photograph some earthgrazers.

I need some experts (Rob McNaught, R. Lunsford, G. Zay, Casper de Tuile, et
al) to advise me, on the whether to try pre predicted-max (on evening of
Aug. 11) or post predicted-max (on evening of Aug. 13).  The predicted max
(see above, ~9-10am Aug. 12 local time) is actually closer to morning of
Aug. 12, which means going out on evening of Aug. 11.  Moonlight meteor
photography requires short exposures (because of moonlight) *continuously*
all night/morning, so that means a lot of film & film-processing.  I don't
want to get too crazy, just one night of meteor patrol can be quite
expensive.  Film will only show fireballs, faint ones will not show up on.
I remember seeing some nice bright ones last year, under moonlight
conditions from my house in Pasadena.

Is the 2001 Perseids expected to be anything spectacular?  If not, maybe I
just stay home (I'm actually at a conference in Los Angeles that day, so I
would have to drive to the mountains to do photography.  I'd rather be
networking with my colleagues, for work-related stuff)


B Yen



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