[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]
Re: (meteorobs) re: Turkey Leonid conditions
To me, weather considerations dominate. If I'm going to all the expense and
trouble of going somewhere to see the Leonids, I don't want to end up
watching clouds and cursing. I still remember that experience with the
Leonids in 1966. I was in Concord, California, and I was an avid teenage
watcher of meteors. I stayed up most of the night, going outside every half
hour and seeing fractions of Leonids through holes in the clouds. I could
see that a storm was going on, but I couldn't do anything about it. Never
again will I let that happen! I'll be in Arizona this year, at a site with
probability of clear skies above 95%. Guam has the best geographic position
for this year's Leonids, but its weather outlook is abysmal.
Chris
> From: <marco.langbroek@wanadoodot nl>
> Reply-To: meteorobs@atmob.org
> Date: Mon, 06 Aug 2001 13:48:17 +00200 (MET DST)
> To: <meteorobs@atmob.org>
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) re: Turkey Leonid conditions
>
>
> Quoting "P. Edward Murray" <edward12@erols.com>:
>
>> You might want to re read the June issue of S&T. The 2 researchers you
>> should be paying attention to are David Asher & Robert McNaught.
>
> Yes, and no. The Lyytinen and Van Flandern predictions also deserve attention,
> because so far they have been just as correct the past two years as those of
> David. Both the David/Rob and Esko/Tom models basically predict similar peak
> times. The difference is that so far Esko and Tom seem to have done slightly
> better at predicting visible rates (but this is a re-run of a discussion which
> occurred on this mailinglist earlier following the 1999 and 2000 Leonids and I
> refer to that discussion for further details). In essence, I think we all
> should be aware that altough the art of predictions have matured considerably
> last few years to a degree where I feel confident in their basics, it still
> remain predictions. I feel confident about the predicted peak times but retain
> some caution about predicted rates. Reality might be different. That's one
> reason to go out and see, even if you're not located favourable with regard to
> the predicted peaks. There's no reason to think that in that case the Leonids
> are not interesting for you.
>
> NB: please note that in my opinion the difference between a peak of 7000 over
> China or a peak of 2000 over the US is just a luxury problem. The one is a lot
> of meteors, the other one is as well. And even if you "only" get rates at a
> few
> hundreds or even "just" Perseid level, remember that's still a fine show. So
> don't despair if you are stuck in a "wrong" place this year! But of course, I
> am spoiled and already have my sweet memories of rates up into the hundreds
> (several times: Leonids, Perseids, alpha Monocerotids), and one into the
> thousands: I have seen the 1999 storm, from Spain. I hope to add another one
> coming November from the US. :-)
>
> - Marco Langbroek
>
>
> To stop getting email from the 'meteorobs' list, use the Web form at:
> http://www.tiacdot net/users/lewkaren/meteorobs/subscribe.html
>
To stop getting email from the 'meteorobs' list, use the Web form at:
http://www.tiacdot net/users/lewkaren/meteorobs/subscribe.html
Follow-Ups:
References: