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(meteorobs) new Leonid rate predictions (was :Leonid rate predictor URL)




----- Original Message -----
From: "Daniel Fischer" <dfischer@astro.uni-bonndot de>

> Three months and a few days from now we will know who was right - but I
> doubt that there will be any universal agreement on the correct model
> before that. While this is pure 'science in action' and kind of fun (esp.
> when you're at a conference in a remote place, together with most of the
> key scientists in the field), it doesn't make it any easier to decide
> even which continent to travel to this fall ...

Well, I already decided it would be the US for me several months ago. I'll
go there with the expectation of seeing maybe a 2000 ZHR. You'll hear me
yell when it will turn out 30 000 after all. But if it is a ZHR of 2000 or
even if it is less, which is possible, I'll be satisfied anyway. Frankly,
while I have peace in my mind about the peak TIME predictions, none of the
ZHR predictions so far, be it Asher/Mcnaught, Lyytinen/Van Flandern or
Jenniskens, has ever got me a true believer, although I tend to take the
Lyytinen values slightly more serious because overall they fitted best so
far. But the truth is ALL of them have been wrong in modelling peak
strengths on one or the other occasion. And none of them have been able to
explain the second (Nov 17-18) peak over Asia of 1998 for example. Both
according to David Asher as well as Esko Lyytinen there should have been no
recent (<10 revolutions) dust trail near Earth that night. Yet there was a
peak with orbital elements matching those of the recent dusttrail
encounters. None of the models have been able to explain that peak.

And maybe I might be secretly happy with that. It means that there's still
some adventure and the pleasant lure of the unknown to these Leonid
apparitions. It becomes boring when you know from the outset what you'll
get, although even then there always will be the weather introducing some
suspense of course.

Marco Langbroek
Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)


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