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Re: (meteorobs) What I think I know (and don't know) ...

And 1969 was even more extreme.  Since David and I made the point in early
1999 that observational evidence coinfirms that dust trails have continuity
at high density for some years after the comet's passage, there has still
been much resistance to predictions of storm rates of the order of ZHR 15,000
in 2001/2.  The fact is that rates this high haven't been seen this far from
the comet in the last 200 years *but such favourable geometrical encounters
with dust trails* has never occured in the last 200 years.  Perhaps folks
should reread the 1999 article to confirm we made this point clearly then.
Readers of meteorobs should be aware that I've reitterated it many times
since then.  And yes, were it not for Gary Kronk, we may not have known about
1969.  This evidence really put the nail in the coffin as far as we were
concerned.  Again, this is all discussed in the original article.  Marco
analysed this data also I believe.

Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au

On Mon, 27 Aug 2001 Skywayinc@aol.com wrote:

> In a message dated 8/25/01 1:43:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
> dfischer@astro.uni-bonndot de writes:
> 
> << The problem is that there has never been a
>    situation like in 2001 (or 2002) when the Earth is coming
>    rather close to certain dust trails, but several years after
>    the parent comet Tempel-Tuttle came by.  >>
> 
>     Actually . . . the trail that is expected to give rise to the meteor 
> storm over North America (from 1767) has apparently interacted with the Earth 
> before.  In 1869, a Leonid display which may have produced a ZHR of 1,000 to 
> 2,000 was witnessed by a "Dr. C. Meldrum" from the Island of Mauritius in the 
> Indian Ocean (it was Gary Kronk who discovered this observation in the 
> journal Nature).  In November 1869, 55P/Tempel-Tuttle was 3 years and 9 
> months past perihelion, whereas in November 2001, the comet is 3 years and 8 
> months past perihelion.  Thus . . . it appears that Leonid storms are still 
> quite possible with the comet well past perihelion.  
> 
> -- joe rao  
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