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(meteorobs) Expected Lunar "ZHRs" for the Moon during 2001 Leonids



> Using the same program I use to generate spacecraft Leonid forecasts, I
> have
> constructed ZHR profiles for the Moon (as the Moon doesn't have an
> atmosphere, the
> use of ZHR is relevant only insofar as it is a indicator of the relative
> flux) for the
> Asher/McNaught and Brown/Cooke models. Here are the details:
> 
> Asher/McNaught:
> 
>  Maximum ZHR:       5247.3
>  Time of maximum: Nov 18 at 16.3200 UT
>  Maximum flux (down to 1e-5 g):   0.26E+01 km^-2 hr^-1
>  Fluence (down to 1e-5 g):   0.25E+01 km^-2
> 
>  Maximums for the various streams are:
> 
>   1799 Max. ZHR:        442.0 on Nov 18.6000 Distance:  0.00059 AUs
>   1833 Max. ZHR:       5247.3 on Nov 18.6800 Distance:  0.00026 AUs
> 
> Brown/Cooke:
> 
>  Maximum ZHR:       1963.7
>  Time of maximum: Nov 18 at 20.6400 UT
>  Maximum flux (down to 1e-5 g):   0.98E+00 km^-2 hr^-1
>  Fluence (down to 1e-5 g):   0.67E+01 km^-2
> 
>  Maximums for the various streams are:
> 
>   1633 Max. ZHR:        129.2 on Nov 18.8200 Distance:  0.00205 AUs
>   1666 Max. ZHR:        162.8 on Nov 18.8200 Distance: -0.00115 AUs
>   1699 Max. ZHR:        209.5 on Nov 18.8200 Distance: -0.00090 AUs
>   1733 Max. ZHR:          2.9 on Nov 18.4400 Distance:  0.00693 AUs
>   1766 Max. ZHR:        142.1 on Nov 18.5000 Distance:  0.00305 AUs
>   1799 Max. ZHR:        219.2 on Nov 18.6000 Distance: -0.00196 AUs
>   1833 Max. ZHR:        742.2 on Nov 18.6800 Distance: -0.00058 AUs
>   1866 Max. ZHR:       1449.5 on Nov 18.8600 Distance: -0.00020 AUs
> 
> Please note the the Asher/McNaught model gives just maxima, and that
> the ZHR profile depicted in the graph is the output of my program based,
> in part, on historical information. Their results are also given for the
> Earth
> only, so what you see is my extrapolation of their work to the Moon.
> 
> I am sending a GIF plot of the lunar ZHR profiles to Lew, so that he can
> make it available on the Web (Takes a lot of shuffling to get things
> posted
> on a NASA site).
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Bill Cooke
> CSC/ED44
> Marshall Space Flight Center, AL 35812
> Phone: (256) 544-9136
> FAX: (256) 544-0242
> Email: bill.cooke@msfc.nasadot gov
> 
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