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(meteorobs) Draconids and Leonids meteor streams!



Hello Meteorobs!
Here are reduced by abstract of the Russian papers concerning to model
operation meteoric storms.

Sergey Shanov

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THE GIACOBINI-ZINNER COMET AND GIACOBINID METEOR STREAM
By E.A.Reznikov
// Works Kazan' town astronomical observatory. 1993. P.80-101
The evolution of the Giacobinid meteor streams was studied from 1985 to
2025. It is shown that the Giacobinid meteor shower will be observed in
1998.

Date of enc. (UT)    Trail   rD-rE    V
1926 October  9,906  1900  +0,0055  -13,6
1926 October  9,900  1907  +0,0066  -23,6
1926 October  9,940  1913  +0,0024  -31,6
1926 October  9,969  1920  +0,0007  -63,5
1933 October  9,838  1900  -0,0001  +15,1
1933 October  9,832  1907  -0,0002  +20,2
1933 October  9,799  1913  +0,0032  +24,9
1933 October  9,782  1920  +0,0046  +36,2
1946 October 10,169  1900  -0,0001  +02,7
1946 October 10,163  1907  +0,0001  +03,2
1946 October 10,159  1913  +0,0006  +03,3
1946 October 10,156  1920  +0,0008  +03,9
1946 October 10,153  1926  +0,0010  +04,8
1946 October 10,153  1933  +0,0010  +07,1
1946 October 10,153  1940  +0,0012  +13,8
1952 October  9,513  1900  +0,0120  -26,0
1952 October  9,549  1907  +0,0087  -27,7
1952 October  9,647  1920  +0,0001  -38,5
1952 October  9,656  1926  -0,0014  -46,4
1985 Meteoric storm to explain was not possible
> Cannot explain that one either. Perhaps the 1933 or 1926 trails which are
highly disturbed in
the area, may show an encounter if the computation is carried out at a
higher resolution. I experienced a similar sitution with the Ursids, and it
is always difficult to explain anything if there are no real dust trails.
1998 October  8,550  1926  -0,00053 +11,17
2012 October  8,7    1959  +0,0014  +39
> OOPS, MISSED, I did not stretch my computations thus far out in delta a0.
See that trail approaching the crossing point in my plot, but it then it
ends. No doubt it is a real encounter, but
probably the delta a0 is quite a bit away from what produced storms in the
past. Will compute
that one in order to check the numerical result, but I am not very
optimistic.
2018 October         1953  +0,0044  +08,6
> Yes, but a big hole in the trail due to gravitational disturbances, the
density of particles may
be very low. This is definitely not an intersection with a well-behaved
trail at all. Don't expect a great storm from that one. In order to check
the numerical result, I have to compute that one at higher resolution.
> - The comment Hartwig Luethen

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PERIODIC COMET TEMPEL-TUTTLE AND LEONID METEOR SHOWER
E.D.Kondrat'eva, E.A.Reznikov
// Astronomical herald. 1985. number 2. P. 144-151.
On the basis of the exact orbital elements of the comet Tempel-Tuttle we can
determine the time of maximum for the Leonid storms in 1833, 1966, 1999 and
2001-2002 years.

Date of enc. (UT)    Trail   rD-rE    V       RADIANT
1833 November 12,32  1799   0,00067  17,2     -      -
1966 November 17,50  1899   0,00039  16,4     -      -
1999 November 18,09  1899  -0,0007   13,7  10,19  +21,9
2000 November 18,32  1866  +0,0007   11,4  10,24  +21,7
2001 November 18,77  1866  +0,0002   14,1  10,24  +21,6
2002 November 19,44  1866  +0,0001   17,0  10,26  +21,6

Date of enc., accuracy 0,01 day
rD-rE - Minimum distance between orbits, accuracy 0,0001 AU
V- Velocity throw out particles from comet (meters/sec.)

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