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(meteorobs) Correction for IMO Meteor Shower Calendar for 2002



From the IMO Meteor Shower Calendar for 2002:

On the Leonids . . . 
"This year (2002), McNaught and Asher predict only a single maximum, on 
November 19 at 10:36 UT, when the Earth passes closest to the 1866 Leonid 
dust trail, and they suggest ZHRs of up to about 25,000 may be seen."

    This is an incorrect statement.  McNaught and Asher actually make 
reference to two maximums which have the potential to produce storm rates.  

    The first maximum is predicted to occur on 2002 November 19 at 4:00 UT.  
This maximum takes into account the 7-revolution dust trail of 
55P/Tempel-Tuttle (the same trail that is predicted to produce storm rates 
for North America in 2001).  The predicted ZHR is 15,000 and the region of 
visibility is for West Africa, Western Europe, Northern Canada (see my aside 
below) and northeastern parts of South America.

    The second maximum . . . as already noted above . . . is predicted for 
2002 November 19 at 10:36 UT.  This maximum takes the 4-revolution dust trail 
of 55P into account (the same trail that is predicted to produce storm rates 
for eastern Asia and west-central Australia in 2001).  The predicted ZHR is 
30,000 and the region of visibility will be confined solely to North America. 
 Unfortunately, the Moon will be 15 days old (just hours before reaching 
full) for both displays.

    Just as an aside . . . it is interesting to note that on Canada's Ungava 
Peninsula, along the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, the unusual opportunity 
will be presented to see both potential storms.  The first (7-rev. trail) 
would occur with the Leonid radiant only about 10 degrees up in the 
east-northeast sky, while the second (4-rev. trail) occurs with the radiant 
about 55 degrees high, but also virtually coinciding with the beginning of 
astronomical twilight.  I don't know if anybody would seriously consider 
traveling to this part of Canada in attempt to observe two possible meteor 
storms in a single night.  Obviously, a very close scrutiny of local 
climatological records would be in order.  

    But who knows?  Maybe next year, one of you might find yourselves at 
Great Whale River, Richmond Gulf, Port Harrison, or beautiful downtown 
Povungnituk!

More details about these forecasts can be found in WGN, 28:5 (October 2000), 
pages 138-143.  

    Incidentally, while their predictions are not mentioned in the IMO 
Calendar, Esko Lytinnen (Finland) and Tom Van Flandern (Meta Research, 
Washington DC) have also alluded to the potential of storm activity from 
these same two trails in 2002.

-- joe rao  
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