Re: (meteorobs) Leonids 2001 -- Some final thoughts

Well . . . I've arrived at my observing site in southeast Arizona.  Fortunately, a strong, upper-level low pressure system is predicted to stay just off to my east, allowing generally clear skies for these next few nights. 

As for Leonid activity in 2001, there was a front-page article on the Leonids in one of the Arizona papers this morning, with a reference to me as Sky & Telescope's "Leonid handicapper."  It is interesting to me that virtually all the news media (Paul Harvey, the AP, etc . . . ) have latched on to Peter Jenniskens prediction of 4200/hr. for the North American Leonid peak rate ("Would you like to see 70 meteors per minute?"), but have said little about the other (lower) forecasts.

So far as I'm concerned, I think the North American peak will end up somewhere in the 1000-1500/hr. range. Of course, I wouldn't mind if Dr. Jenniskens is correct with his 4200/hr. forecast, but I think that 1000-1500/hr. is a more likely scenario.  In addition, with the 7-revolution trail, I would also expect that there will be larger particles involved (as opposed to, say, the "fresher" 3-rev. trail experienced over Europe in 1999).  So, while not as rich in overall numbers as 1999, I would guess that there will be somewhat brighter meteors observed overall.

Well . . . I guess we'll all know the final outcome in a few days.  Clear skies and good luck to everyone!

-- joe rao