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Re: (meteorobs) Leonids 2002
There should be two peaks, both storm level. The strength depends on the model:
since (to me) it appears dr. Jenniskens' model was the closest match to this
year's activity, I'll take a look at his predictions. First peak is around 4h
UT on Nov 19, favouring Europe. Predicted ZHR is 4900. The second peak is
expected around 10:30 UT on Nov 19, favouring Northern America. Predicted ZHR
is 5700. The full Moon will reduce the number of visible meteors substantially.
There will be several factors that need to be taken into account when
determining the expected rate. First, the European peak will be produced by an
older trail which may produce brighter meteors so even though the ZHR is
expected to be lower, the actual number of visible meteors might be higher.
Second, the full Moon. It will be wise to go as high as possible to avoid as
much haze and aerosols as possible. Bob Lunsford reports a LM of 6.0 under full
Moon and very clear skies during Leonids 1997!
The best thing to do now, however, is to wait and see what will happen with the
prediction after the results of this year's shower are taken into account!
Clear skies!
Jure A.
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