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Re: (meteorobs) a few beginner questions...

In a message dated 11/28/01 9:07:59 AM Eastern Standard Time, 
Mark777ebay@aol.com writes:

<< #1)  When is it likely that predictions for 2002 will be finalized?

    Actually . . . while revised predictions (based on what occurred in 2001) 
likely will be issued in the next several months, it is not out of the 
question that further revisions and refinements will take place right on up 
to almost to the time of the 2002 display itself.  Examples of this: Rob 
McNaught and David Asher made some significant changes to their 2001 Leonid 
outlook with less than a month to go.  Peter Brown and Bill Cooke lowered 
their initial 2001 North American projection by a full order of magnitude 
back in July.  So . . . it might not be until literally just before next 
year's peak activity that all model outlooks will be "finalized."  

 #2)  Is it possible that the moon will only be a problem for part of the 
observation period?  (Is it possible to move to different parts of the world 
to avoid the moon?) (Is it possible that updated predictions might lesson the 
moon problem?)  

    No . . . the Moon will pretty much be a major hinderence for the 2002 
Leonids through the entire night.  It will arrive at full phase about a half 
a day after peak Leonid activity -- a 99% waxing gibbous phase!  It will be 
at . . . or pretty close to the meridian as the Leonid radiant rises in the 
east at local midnight and will still be above the western horizon as the 
radiant climbs high toward the south-southeast at the first light of dawn.
 
 #3)  Anyone know where to find what time the moon rises and sets next year?
 
    This question varies depending on your location, but pretty much count on 
the Moon being in the sky all night long.  Just as an example, for Boston, on 
November 18, the moonrises at 3:48 p.m. and sets the following morning 
(November 19) at 6:05 a.m.

 #4)  And finally, from reading, I suspect that 2002 will not be that good 
for data recording... but is it possible that it will be better (than 2001) 
for beginners just hoping to see a great display?)
  >>
    I personally think that the 2001 Leonids were such a great public 
relations/media success because of their extreme brightness.  I knew that the 
vast majority of the general public had seen very few "shooting stars" in 
their lifetime, so I knew that if they saw only a few bright ones . . . 
fireballs and/or bolides . . . the overall numbers would be secondary; a case 
of "quality versus quantity."  I heard of people who watched from 
brightly-lit neighborhoods and coming away happy and excited about what they 
saw.  Ironically, had we substituted the 3 rev. 1999 Leonids in place of the 
7 rev. 2001 Leonids, I think a lot of folks would have been disappointed, 
since the '99 Leonid streaks were (overall) much fainter.

So . . . the key to next year's display will be whether the meteors will be 
bright enough to stand-up against the bright moonlight.  

    The 7 rev. trail from 1767 will again be encountered around 04h UT on 
November 19.  Only those in Europe, the northeast US and northern Canada will 
be able to avail themselves of this display.  Perhaps there will be more 
bright fireballs and bolides (and for the northeast US, some spectacular 
earth-skimmers, despite the moonlight).  

    The 4 rev. trail from 1866 will be encountered around 10:30 UT on 
November 19.  Being somewhat of a "fresher" trail than 1767, there may be 
more fine dust and less of the larger pieces that produce fireballs, so 
perhaps the meteors will not be as eye-catching as their 1767 brethren some 
hours earlier.

    In looking at next year's Leonids, I can't help but think of a line 
written by the late Roy K. Marshall of Sky & Telescope in their October 1946 
issue.  Marshall was alluding to a predicted storm of Giacobinid meteors that 
was also expected to coincide with a bright full Moon.  His comments were 
sarcastic yet succinct:  "The Moon will probably kill off a majority of the 
meteors; maybe we'll only see a thousand per hour!"

-- joe rao     
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