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(meteorobs) possible encounter with young dust trails of Tempel Tuttle



Hello,

 

Yesterday evening, I saw that very interesting article from Robert Roy Britt, concerning  the first overview over who was right. “Leonid Meteor shower forecasts : it looks like we were all wrong”. It seems that predicting the ZHR rate will stay difficult !

 

In this paragraph, Bill Cooke wrote ; 

 

“Another item of interest is that the data we collected on the night of the 17th , may show a small peak from 1932 and 1965 trails ; this was not predicted in any forecast.”

 

So, there was a possible encounter between the earth and two younger dust trails ( 1 REV and 2 REV). My question is ; at what time exactly was the closest passage between the earth and those two dust trails on November 17th ?

 

Will those dust trails come closer to the earth in the next years ? I think Esko Lyytinen  and Tom Van Flandern wrote in their article “Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts” about a possible enhanced  Leonid activity, especially of faint (telescopic) meteors, produced by the 1 REV in 2005 and  2 REV in 2006 and 2007. Also Asher and Mc Naught gives ZHR 150 in 2006 from the 2 REV dust trail.

 

I think that for the “die hard” meteor observer, the show isn’t over after 2002  !

 

Clear skies and up to the Geminids !
 
 
Michel Vandeputte
Dutch Meteor Society
Sino Dutch Leonid Expedition 2001 - team 2 (Pan Shan station)
VVS Belgium - meteor section.

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