Hello,
Yesterday evening, I saw that very interesting
article from Robert Roy Britt, concerning
the first overview over who was right. “Leonid Meteor shower forecasts :
it looks like we were all wrong”. It seems that predicting the ZHR rate will
stay difficult !
In this paragraph, Bill Cooke wrote ;
“Another item of interest is that the data we collected
on the night of the 17th , may show a small peak from 1932 and 1965
trails ; this was not predicted in any
forecast.”
So, there was a possible encounter between the earth and
two younger dust trails ( 1 REV and 2 REV). My question is ; at what time
exactly was the closest passage between the earth and those two dust trails on
November 17th ?
Will those dust trails come closer to the earth in the
next years ? I think Esko Lyytinen
and Tom Van Flandern wrote in their article “Predicting the strength of
Leonid outbursts” about a possible enhanced Leonid activity, especially of faint
(telescopic) meteors, produced by the 1 REV in 2005 and 2 REV in 2006 and 2007. Also Asher and
Mc Naught gives ZHR 150 in 2006 from the 2 REV dust trail.
I think that for the “die hard” meteor observer, the show
isn’t over after 2002 !