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Re: (meteorobs) Jupiter's effect?
Mark,
while I'm not really into orbital dynamics and evolution of the Leonid
meteoroid stream, I think I've read and heard enough to have gained a good
picture of what's going on. So here goes:
If by 'significant' you mean storm level, then I think enough dust trails have
been 'identified' to rule out the possibility of a meteor storm in 2033 and
2066 (unless this year's results change the picture in 2033 significantly).
Leonid dust trails can produce meteor storms only while they are young,
probably up to 10 or 15 revolutions. These trails have already been modelled
and no encounters are currently expected in 2033. I think the distance by which
the dust trail orbits will be offset by the encounter with Jupiter is at least
an order of magnitude larger than the usual diameter of the dust trails, so in
this case even significant shifts that may be found from this year's data will
not be enough. So much for storms.
Smaller outbursts? Probably. Since I don't know the entire picture for 2033 I
can't really say what's going to happen, but if we pass throught the outskirts
of younger trails or centers of older trails or perhaps resonant arcs, then we
may be in for outbursts with several hundred meteors per hour.
I hope this is enough of an answer until the real experts jump in (if they
haven't already).
Clear skies!
Jure A.
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