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Re: (meteorobs) New Bright Comet -- WARNING!
In a message dated 12/16/01 12:44:35 AM Eastern Standard Time,
gamble@peoplepc.com writes:
<< IAU is reporting a new comet which could become a mag 0 object in 2004.
Link to IAU circular is... http://cfa-www.harvarddot edu/mpec/K01/K01X71.html >>
This may be all well and good, however, I think it should be pointed out
that at the end of the circular Brian Marsden reports that " . . . the
"original" and "future" barycentric values of 1/a are +0.000004 and -0.000741
(+/- 0.000118) AU**-1, respectively." This yields an eccentricity for the
comet orbit of e = 1.0007831, which means it may very well be a "new" comet
from the Oort cloud. In the past, such comets, with great promise, have
ultimately proven to be "duds." Excellent examples are Comet Cunningham in
1940-41, Comet Kohoutek in 1973-74 and most recently, Comet Austin in 1990.
One of the reasons why optimism ran high for Comet Hale-Bopp nearly two
years in advance of its perihelion was that it was determined to have an
orbit resembling a long ellipse with a period of roughly 4000 years and hence
had already been through the inner solar system at least once before. My
hopes would be similarly as high for Comet NEAT if only its eccentricity were
calculated to be less than 1.0
-- joe rao
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