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(meteorobs) Re: 1885 and 1891 shower outbursts

Mark and All,

Here are some attempts to answer your questions:

Mark777ebay@aol.com wrote:
> 
> happy holidays everyone... i had a few quick very basic questions I 
> was hoping someone might be able to help me with:
> 
> #1
> it must have been strong to attract enough attention to be noted, 
> especially in the moonlight of a 100% lit Moon. Are there any other 
> historical records of this shower, since I haven't seen any yet?
> 
I cannot really help you out with this question.

> As this shower was observed with a full moon.... does that hold the
> possibility for a spectacular Leonids in 2002 despite the moon?  
> (spectacular being defined as equivalent to this past year or even > better?)
> 
Next year we can look forward to two peaks: the first one over Europe
should have bright meteors but should be weaker than 2001. The second
over the America's should be stronger than 2001 but not as bright. The
moonlight would interfere more with fainter meteors so we may see
similar rates from both peaks. We must recall that the spectacular 1799
Leonid shower also occurred with a full moon in the sky. 

> #2:
> 
> What is the likelyhoold of the Quads arriving 6 hours late?  Is this 
> like 1/100,000 or 1/20?
> 
Not likely that late. Perhaps 3 hours at the most.

> #3:  For an observer in South Carolina.. is the zenith high enough 
> (?or low enouhg) to oberserve earth grazers right after sunset on Jan > 3rd?

I would suggest looking toward the northwest half way up in the sky.
Very few earthgrazers travel straight up. The odds are better of seeing
one scoot along the north or west horizon low in the sky.
> 
> #4:  Anyone care to guess what the likelhood is of one of these newly
> discovered comets producing a major shower in our lifetime?  Is there > any chance of this being predicatable (even approximately)  if the 
> comet does not pass twice?
> 
The odds of any comet intercepting the earth's orbit is very slim. There
is virtually no chance of this occurring during the next hundred years.
The odds do get better the farther one goes out but not many of us will
be around a few thousand years into the future! We had just better be
satisfied with the meteor showers of today. We can always hope that an 
existing debris path that does not currently strike the earth may move
into the earth's path. There are always other surprises such as the 1998
June Bootids and the 1982 Lyrids that reward vigilante observers.

It does not matter if a comet is making its 1st approach or 100th. Once
a comet's orbit is determined we can calculate the closest approach to
earth of both the comet and its orbit. 

I hope this helps!

Bob Lunsford
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