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(meteorobs) OT: Iridium 27 decay warning update
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[meteorite-list] OT: Iridium 27 decay warning update
Matson, Robert ROBERT.D.MATSON@saic.com
Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:46:49 -0800
Hi All,
The decay trend is improving on Iridium 27 for
southern California. A few hours ago I would have put
the odds of it occurring during the L.A. pass at about
1%.
Drag seems to have increased a little more than
expected, bringing the reentry time earlier. I would
now say the chances are pretty good that reentry
will\ occur within +/- 1 rev of the
California-Nevada-Oregon-Washington pass, and
I'm inclined to increase our chances of observing it
to 5% based on our favorable location downrange of a
satellite local altitude minima.
Those in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa we'll be encouraged to hear that their
chances have improved dramatically as well -- one rev
earlier than the California pass. The northbound
track
is just a bit west of Houston around 20:18 CST, and
almost directly over Dallas a minute later.
Oklahoma City is also pretty close to the reentry
track, as are Wichita, Kansas and Omaha, Nebraska.
The pass goes right over Sioux City, Iowa at around
20:22 CST. Anyone close to the border shared by
Minnesota and the Dakotas is also right under the
satellite
ground track on this pass.
Best,
Rob
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