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RE: (meteorobs) Re: Leo 2001 coverage in S&T 3/2002



On Wed, 06 February 2002, Stop Light Pollution! wrote:


> But the American Meteor Society plot of the american Leonid Shower Outburst
> today shows a peak ZHR of 2500 near 11 UT on November 18, 2001! At the time
> the March issue went to press the earlier IMO ZHR was about 1500 for the
> same time, which is much different than the AMS ZHR of 2500. No wonder S&T
> was confused. They even wrote that the experts don't agree. We should be 
> asking, why are the AMS rates so much higher than the IMO?

Take a look at the caption on that AMS graph. These results are based on five (5) observers, all at the same location. It is even noted as being "very preliminary."  Such a sample is likely to be skewed due to a small number of observers with high coefficients of perception, and localized variations in storm activity if they do exist.  The IMO profile, on the other hand, is now up to 177 observers with wide distribution.  It will be nice to see a global analysis, with the data displayed in different formats.  

Since everything is preliminary at this point, the proper thing for Sky and Telescope to do is to put together a rather small "Reader Reports" section with images and impressions, then note that a more comprehensive overview will be coming in a later issue.  I haven't read the March issue, so maybe they did just that.  I do know that the JUNE 2000 issue had 20 pages on the Leonids, including a section on different storm profiles at different locations around the Mediterranean.  And the NOVEMBER 2001 issue had a good summary of the predictions for the 2001 display.  So, again this year, it probably would be best to wait until later in the year for full coverage of the Leonids, until a global analysis has been completed and also until the modeling experts have had their say on 2002. 

But I understand the interest in getting _something_ out early in the year, especially since this was one of the few times meteors were a front-page event both among amateur astronomers and the newsstand-browsing public.

--
Wes Stone
http://skytour.homestead.com


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