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Re: (meteorobs) Moonlit Leonids

Hi Tony (and everybody else) --

    Regarding the moonlit 2002 Leonid display, I would be careful when 
talking about potential hourly rates to the general public.  For last 
November's display, it was interesting to see how the news media were all 
drawn to and constantly quoting the highest and most optimistic projected 
rates.  I even heard radio commentator Paul Harvey on his daily newscast ask 
his listeners: 

    "Hey . . . would you do yourself a favor?  Would you make sure and get up 
before dawn on Sunday morning and step outside?  If you do, you'll probably 
be treated to the greatest display of shooting stars that you or I will ever 
see in our lifetime.  Meteors falling at a rate of (pause for effect) . . . 
seventy per minute!" 

    There was (of course) no mention about the fact that such a rate would 
certainly be tempered by any nearby sky obstructions or local light 
pollution.  I myself, stayed away from quoting any specific numbers, stating 
publicly only that if you went outside that morning you probably would see 
more meteors in an hour than what you've seen in your entire life.

    The fact that the Moon is nearly full this year is indeed a major 
problem, but assuming we have another outburst of bright meteors this year, 
the general public should still come away happy.  I think it should also be 
pointed out that the first dust trail encounter comes at around 11 p.m. EST 
on November 18 for the Northeast US (just as the radiant is rising).  This 
means the potential for some spectacular Earth-grazer activity for that part 
of the US (Maritimes of Canada as well).  As for the second dust trail 
encounter about six hours later, it will certainly help that the radiant will 
be high in the sky while the Moon is low in the west.

    Again . . . I think the key to the 2002 Leonids being a success in the 
eyes of the general public will be the overall brightness of the display and 
not so much the rates.  If one (or both) dust trails present the same type of 
moderately faint meteors as in 1999, I think folks are going to come away 
disappointed.  On the other hand, if we get another bevy of bright fireballs 
and Earth grazers, the overall reviews will be far more favorable!

-- joe rao  
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