[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]

Re: (meteorobs) Perseids storms predicted for 2029 (and other wild stuff)

Re: statement below, before you start booking your flight to Charlotte or
Raleigh to watch the Leonids in the Allegheny mountains of North Carolina
USA, be aware that the Allegheny's are ranges of the Appalachian system in
Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, and W. Virginia, west of and generally
parallel with the Blue Ridge Mtns.  The Blue Ridge cross western North
Carolina.  Hundreds flocked to the Blue Ridge Parkway to watch the 2001
Leonids, and I suspect the same will occur in 2002!  Good Night, Moon.

----- Original Message -----
From: Daniel Fischer <dfischer@astro.uni-bonndot de>
To: <meteorobs@atmob.org>
Cc: <dfischer@aibn55.astro.uni-bonndot de>; <huette@astr.ruhr-uni-bochumdot de>;
<leo2001@yahoogroups.com>; <sofi2001@yahoogrous.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 05, 2002 7:39 PM
Subject: (meteorobs) Perseids storms predicted for 2029 (and other wild
stuff)


> During the past hour, the well-known (fringe) astronomer Tom van Flandern
> has given a most impressive, provocative and well received talk here at
> the 200th Meeting of the American Astronomical Society in which he
> reiterated some of his ususual views of how the solar system works,
> declared victory for his group's Leonids storm predictions over all
> other groups, and made some definitive statements about upcoming
> meteor storms. While I'm sorting my toughts, here's a summary of his
> views and further predictions "hot of the presses". Van Flandern believes
>
>
> 1. that comets are asteroids that are orbited by meteoroids (and
> that the classical 'dirty snowball' model is totally wrong),
>
> 2. that those meteoroids escape the asteroids' gravity through the
> L1 and L2 Lagrangian points (so there is no ejection process
> involved in creating the famous dust trails whatsoever),
>
> 3. that one can predict the maximum ZHR value to expected when the
> Earth encounters such a trail without *any* knowledge of past
> storms, just from the above-mentioned model alone,
>
> 4. that this approach has predicted the max. ZHR values of all
> Leonid storms and outbursts since 1999 with far higher precision
> than all attempts based on historical observations,
>
> 5. that the predictions of the max. ZHR values get even better
> (i.e. to within a few percent) of the observations when one
> assumes that the 'official' IMO values are too small by 30 to
> 40% because too many bad observers are always added in,
> leading to an average value too low,
>
> 6. that in 2002 there will be a storm with a ZHR of 3500 at
> 4:10 UTC and another one with a ZHR of 2600 at 10:46 UTC on
> November 19 (these are the 'reduced' values, if I remember
> correctly),
>
> 7. that the best place in the world to observe the Leonids
> of 2002 is in the Allegheny Mountains in North Carolina, USA,
>
> 8. that one can beat the full Moon by having it hidden behind
> a mountain, which will keep the air near the observer free
> from scattered moonlight and increases the number of stars
> visible by a factor of 2 (as shown in experiments he did), and
>
> 9. that the Perseids will experience new strong outbursts
> from 2004 onwards and will reach storm level from 2029
> onwards.
>
> That's not what one tends to hear at your typical astrophysics
> conference, and there was apparenty not one solar system
> professional in the audience (the specific session was on space
> debris; www.aas.org/publications/baas/v34n2/aas200/S660.htm)
> and thus no opposition voiced the bizarre comet model that
> seems to underlie this work. How essential it is, though,
> was not clear - apparently the dust trail modelling works
> best when the meteoroids leave the comet mit zero velocity,
> a feature that can be incorporated into the 'classical'
> dustr trail theory by Asher & McNaught as well (and has been,
> according to van Flandern).
>
> So much for the time being - tomorrow, by the way, van
> Flandern will give another talk on "artificial structures
> on Mars" (www.aas.org/publications/baas/v34n2/aas200/190.htm) ...
>
> Daniel Fischer, reporting from Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
> The archive and Web site for our list is at http://www.meteorobs.org
> To stop getting all email from the 'meteorobs' lists, use our Webform:
> http://www.meteorobs.org/subscribe.html

The archive and Web site for our list is at http://www.meteorobs.org
To stop getting all email from the 'meteorobs' lists, use our Webform:
http://www.meteorobs.org/subscribe.html
References: