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RE: (meteorobs) Warning mistaken date for Delphinids
Hi,
We have submitted a new paper with Peter Jenniskens, to ICAURS on the
oubursts related to long period comets. This is on the direct computing of
the one revolution trails that are reponsible of the short outburtsts
associated or suspected to be assocated to long period comets. This is
expected to give a better means for these predictions than the earlier one
(that was based on the location of the solar system barycentre). With the
gamma Delphindis, the year 2003 (11 June at about 16.35 UT) looks much more
promising than this year. The calculated miss distance RD-rE is about
-0.0003 AU (assuming that an exact hit has happened at the (only onserved)
outbuts in 1930. (In this year it is about -0.002 AU) The uncertainties in
the observed rariant makes also this rD-rE value uncertain, (but less so
than with many of the other outbursts suspected with a suspected connetion
to some (unknown) long period comet).
If the outburst is actually not of of long period nature (up from a few
hundred years), then the calculation of the trail does not correctly
represent the true path. Then also the trail will be already 'ended' or
empty from meteoroids producing visual meteors. Even in the lower longe
period-range it may now be empty. In this case, however there is the
possibility that it may produce some level telescopic (or video-) outburst.
If you try to observe this year (well this advice may come too late for
that), it would be of value if even a few were observed. Then the hopeful
improvement of the radian location would be the really important thing, for
future prdictions. Of course, if (two station) video (or phtographic)
observations could confirm the long period nature of this outburts, this
would be even more important. But as told no outburst is expected to this
year, but this does not exclude the possibility of detecting a few of them.
Esko
>>>
I'm sorry but only today I saw that I wrote
a mistaken date for Delphinids, the exact
date it's JUNE 11th, around 13.30 U.T.
naturally who want to see this meteors must
observe too before and after of this time.
Clear skys.
Roberto Gorelli
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