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re: (meteorobs) Not another 'Leonids 2000???' thread!
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To: meteorobs@atmob.org
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Subject: re: (meteorobs) Not another 'Leonids 2000???' thread!
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From: marco.langbroek@wanadoodot nl
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Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2002 10:07:40 +0200
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Delivered-To: meteorobs-mhonarc@atmob.org
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Delivered-To: meteorobs@atmob.org
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In-Reply-To: <5.1.0.14.2.20020616233432.02a64548@pop.wanadoodot nl>
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References: <5.1.0.14.2.20020616233432.02a64548@pop.wanadoodot nl>
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>
> 4. Langbroek: Marco also made some predictions or estimates about this
> year's
> activity, he also posted them here on 'meteorobs' saying:
>
> - 7 revs trail ZHR 2500 minimum to 7100 maximum
> - 4 revs trail ZHR 3000 minimum to 6500 maximum
>
> ....with chances best that the minimum figures are the ones to go for, he
> suggests, especially for the 7 rev trail.
>
Hi Jure and others,
I should ad that the paper with this forecast has now been accepted by the
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society and should appear somewhere
this summer.
In all honesty, I guess we are still in a stage where predictions are not
foolproof, and we just have to wait and see. We can discuss a lot now, which
indeed can become very confusing, but clarity about the issue will only come in
November...and maybe even then... And it will only come if people WATCH and
report. Of course, I hope my avenue into this issue has some value. If I am
correct in what I point out in my paper, then I should not expect the very high
rates some predicted (of order 10 000 - but I think David and Rob no longer
support that value either) to become true. Well, the only thing we all can do
is go out and SEE coming November. For what appears to be something on which
EVERYBODY agrees, is that we'll get a very nice show again, with certainly very
entertaining rates. Mind you, while not in full agreement about the level of
activity, all predictions do predict rates at at least minor storm levels. Now,
if you are a pessimist (or a realist perhaps...) then you would keep in mind
that of course ALL predictions could be wrong too... Well, we'll see...
Marco
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