[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]
RE: (meteorobs) double predictions and "the Americas"
Daar all,
I think that what Alejandra originally meant, was that some of the entries
were older values (ie. were not mutually consistent) and have now been
(hopefully) updated. The table below, that Alejandra copied from the URSA
page is up to date. There is not a marked folding with this trail. That was
prominent with the 2001/7-rev trail and apparently produced the second
(within the 7-rev) peak around 11UT.
Now a slightly similar effect is predicted with the 7-rev trail also, with a
weak (weaker than that of 2001) sub-peak 0.006deg ( about 8 to 9 minutes)
earlier in solar longitude. Because of so near to the main peak, these are
quite probably not separable, but this may mean that the highest ZHR value
will be reached (as a combination of the peaks) some minutes before that
given below, (even though the more general fit to this encounter is
predicted to center around the given 04:03 UT). (Because the sub-peak is not
well enough modeled in the main predictions, something should also be added
to the predicted maximum ZHR, but this is so much below the total
uncertainties, that this might be useless.)
At the URSA page these are still told to be preliminary. There are now no
plans to furher check these. So these are now expected to be the final
predictions before the storms. I might try to better model the 'combined
peak', given suitable time ..
Esko
>>>
Dear Peter,
I checked the page supporting Lyytinen's data, linked to the
http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/1998.html
And the data there are the following:
Table 1. Lyytinen's Team preliminary Leonid predictions 2002
trail time (UT) ZHR half
strength full width
7r (1767) 19.11.2002 at 04:03 3500 106 minutes
5r (1833) 19.11.2002 at 06:36 160
4r (1866) 19.11.2002 at 10:40 2600 122 minutes
http://www.ursa.fi/ursa/jaostot/meteorit/leoeng02.html
Alejandra
Peter Jenniskens wrote:
>
> Dear Alejandra,
>
> The two entries for 1866 refer to calculations by Esko Lyytinen, who
> found that the 1866 dust trail folded in on itself and there were in
> fact two encounters with different sections of the trail. You can get
> more information via the websites linked through
> http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/1998.html
>
> -Peter Jenniskens
> ......................................................................
> ....
>
> Peter Jenniskens
>
> The SETI Institute e-mail:
pjenniskens@mail.arc.nasadot gov
> NASA Ames Research Center tel: (650) 604-3086
> Mail Stop 239-4 fax: (650) 604-1088
> Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000
>
> http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov
> http://www-space.arc.nasadot gov/~leonid/
>
> http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/pjenniskens.html
> The archive and Web site for our list is at http://www.meteorobs.org
> To stop getting all email from the 'meteorobs' lists, use our Webform:
> http://www.meteorobs.org/subscribe.html
--
__ http://www.cientec.or.cr
/\_\ __ ___ __ ___ ____ ___ ___
\/\ \\ \ / / /__ /| / / /__ /
/\/_//_/ /___ _/_ /___ / |/ / /___ /___
\/_/
Tel:(506) 233-7701, Fax:(506) 255-2182
P.O.Box 8536-1000, San José, Costa Rica
The archive and Web site for our list is at http://www.meteorobs.org To stop
getting all email from the 'meteorobs' lists, use our Webform:
http://www.meteorobs.org/subscribe.html
The archive and Web site for our list is at http://www.meteorobs.org
To stop getting all email from the 'meteorobs' lists, use our Webform:
http://www.meteorobs.org/subscribe.html
Follow-Ups: