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(meteorobs) Five predictions for the Leonids - are those all?
Let's start with the crucial list right away:
First maximum Second maximum
Lyytinen et al. 3500 at 4:03 (106 min FWHM) and 2600 at 10:40 (122 min)
Mc-Naught & Asher 1000 (810-2000) at 3:56+/-5 (105 min) and
6000 (2900-6000) at 10:34+/-5 (71 min)
Jenniskens 5900 at 3:48 (38 min) and 5400 at 10:23 (36 min)
Vaubaillon & Colas 3400+/-300 at 4:04 (120 min) and 3000+/-300 at 10:47 (180 min)
Langbroek 2000 (most likely) to 5200 and 2400 (most likely) to 5700
Those are the latest predictions I have found in
Lyytinen, http://www.ursa.fi/ursa/jaostot/meteorit/leoeng02.html
McNaught & Asher, WGN Vol. 30 #5 [Okt. 2002] 132-43
Jenniskens, http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/ACM2002.pdf
Vaubaillon, http://www.bdl.fr/s2p/leonides/predictions/Leonid_forecast.html
Langbroek, MNRAS Vol. 334 [Aug. 2002] L16-20 (ZHR numbers for IMO formula) -
did I miss any key references in the literature or 'official' websites?
Let the show begin (and Peter Jenniskens be the best this time, as I'm
heading for Tenerife for the first maximum :-) ...
Daniel Fischer
P.S.: Here is the above list again, as compact HTML table:
<html>
<table border=1 cellpadding=1 cellspacing=1>
<tr>
<td>Lyytinen<br>et al.</td>
<td><b>3500</b><br>4:03 (106)</td>
<td><b>2600</b><br>10:40 (122)</td>
</tr><tr>
<td>Mc-<br>Naught<br>& Asher</td>
<td><b>1000</b><br> (810-2000)<br>3:56 ± 5 (105)</td>
<td><b>6000</b><br> (2900-6000)<br>10:34 ± 5 (71)</td>
</tr><tr>
<td>Jenni-<br>skens</td>
<td><b>5900</b><br>3:48 (38)</td>
<td><b>5400</b><br>10:23 (36)</td>
</tr><tr>
<td>Vaubai.<br>& Colas</td>
<td><b>3400</b> ± 300<br>4:04 (120)</td>
<td><b>3000</b> ± 300<br>10:47 (180)</td>
</tr><tr>
<td>Lang-<br>broek</td>
<td><b>2000</b> - 5200</td>
<td><b>2400</b> - 5700</td>
</tr></table><p>
</html>
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