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Re: Re: (meteorobs) Five predictions for the Leonids - are those all?
What would really be interesting, for someone with the time, would be to reduce last years predictions vs. actual results then compare that to this year's set of predictions...
Kim Y.
>
> From: "Manuel Solano Ruiz" <msolanor@terra.es>
> Date: 2002/11/07 Thu PM 01:05:40 EST
> To: "meteorobs (E-mail)" <meteorobs@atmob.org>
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Five predictions for the Leonids - are those all?
>
> Hello,
>
> There are some possible errors in the summary of predictions of the 2002
> Leonids.
>
> A) Mc-Naught & Asher: 1st maximum, FWHM 105 min.
> In their paper in WGN in the table 4 they say 105. But in 9.Outburst widths
> they say: "A value of 130 min would seem a reasonable working figure."
>
> B) Langbroek: According to their paper in MNRAS section 5 and note 1:
> Minimum ZHR 3000 for 4-rev and 2500 for 7-rev
> Maximum ZHRs 6500 for 4-rev and 7100 for 7 rev
> The reduction method of IMO leads to ZHR values on a slightly different
> scale. This difference amounts to a factor of 1.25.
> This is:
> 1st max: min ZHR 7-rev 2500 / 1.25 = 2000
> 1st max: max ZHR 7-rev 7100 / 1.25 = 5680 approx. 5700
> 2nd max :min ZHR 4-rev 3000 / 1.25 = 2400
> 2nd max: max ZHR 4-rev 6500 / 1.25 = 5200
>
> Sincerely,
>
> Manuel Solano Ruiz
> Secretary of SOMYCE
> msolanor@terra.es
>
> ------- Original Message ------------
> Date: Mon, 4 Nov 2002 21:20:26 +0100
> From: Daniel Fischer <dfischer@astro.uni-bonndot de>
> Subject: (meteorobs) Five predictions for the Leonids - are those all?
>
> Let's start with the crucial list right away:
>
>
> First maximum Second maximum
>
> Lyytinen et al. 3500 at 4:03 (106 min FWHM) and 2600 at 10:40 (122 min)
>
> Mc-Naught & Asher 1000 (810-2000) at 3:56+/-5 (105 min) and
> 6000 (2900-6000) at 10:34+/-5
> (71 min)
>
> Jenniskens 5900 at 3:48 (38 min) and 5400 at 10:23 (36 min)
>
> Vaubaillon & Colas 3400+/-300 at 4:04 (120 min) and 3000+/-300 at 10:47
> (180 min)
>
> Langbroek 2000 (most likely) to 5200 and 2400 (most likely) to
> 5700
>
>
> Those are the latest predictions I have found in
>
> Lyytinen, http://www.ursa.fi/ursa/jaostot/meteorit/leoeng02.html
> McNaught & Asher, WGN Vol. 30 #5 [Okt. 2002] 132-43
> Jenniskens, http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/ACM2002.pdf
> Vaubaillon, http://www.bdl.fr/s2p/leonides/predictions/Leonid_forecast.html
> Langbroek, MNRAS Vol. 334 [Aug. 2002] L16-20 (ZHR numbers for IMO formula) -
>
> did I miss any key references in the literature or 'official' websites?
>
> Let the show begin (and Peter Jenniskens be the best this time, as I'm
> heading for Tenerife for the first maximum :-) ...
>
> Daniel Fischer
>
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