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Re: (meteorobs) 4 rev and 7 rev trail in CODES MEAN correction
In a message dated 11/8/02 10:48:24 PM Eastern Standard Time,
Bertunit@aol.com writes:
<< Just wanted to point out, Europe and Africa get the "veteran"
7 rev. trail that has been seen before, we in North America get
the younger 4 rev. trail, and with it maybe a little more uncertainty
with no real previous encounters. >>
I'm of the opinion that the opposite of what Bert suggests (above) is true;
the 7-revolution trail has been shown to have been disrupted in several
different places. This shows up quite well in David Asher's and Rob
McNaught's latest contribution to WGN (October 2002/30-5). Refer especially
to a comparison of Figures 2 and 3 (pgs. 136 &137). The disruption of the
7-rev. trail also shows up very well in Jerimie Vaubaillon's paper, in the
same issue (See Figure 1 on pg. 145).
Meanwhile, the younger (4-rev.) trail, has not been perturbed at all.
Therefore, my interpretation is that if there any intensity uncertainties
they should rest with the 7-rev. trail as opposed to the 4-rev. trail. And
since, as Rob and Dave point out, we will be passing straight through the
center of the 4-rev. trail, the peak region in their model may be
underpredicted due to the existence of this enhanced core.
So . . . my money is on the 4-rev. trail.
-- joe rao
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