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Re: (meteorobs) Leonids to be discussed on NPRs Science Friday
Here in the Northeast US, we are now close enough to start speculating on the
weather prospects for next Monday night/early Tuesday morning for our view of
the Leonid Meteors. I think we are indeed very fortunate that in 2002, the
Leonids are peaking on the night of November 18-19 and not their more
"traditional" November 17-18. At least for some of us, there is a fighting
chance at getting some clear sky by Tuesday morning next.
The long-range charts are all pointing to something somewhat unusual for
November: what looks to be the development of a subtropical low pressure
system that ultimately will evolve into a powerful extratropical East Coast
storm. This system will begin taking form over the Florida Keys early
Saturday. By Sunday, this intensifying system will be over Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina and will be pressing northward.
An all-out nor'easter will be in progress for much of the middle-Atlantic and
Northeast US on Sunday and Sunday night. The storm should be attaining its
maximum near Cape May, NJ early Sunday night . . . then continue northeast
reaching the Gulf of Maine by Monday evening and finally southwestern
Newfoundland by Tuesday morning.
As for sky conditions on the main night . . . I would strongly suspect that
much of northern New York State and New England will be clouded out, thanks
to a strong cyclonic flow of unstable north-northwest winds. There may even
be some scattered rain or wet showers as well. The coastal plain from
Connecticut to Rhode Island and "possibly" Cape Cod and the Islands have a
chance of some clearing during Monday night, though more than six days out,
this is not a certainty.
The Greater New York Area should get into clearing during the night; the
improving conditions working in from southwest to northeast. Gusty winds
will be diminishing as well.
Of course . . . the final outcome will depend strongly on exactly how this
"monster storm" will track relative to the East Coast this weekend, so stay
tuned!
-- joe rao
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