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Re: (meteorobs) (LINMI) Leonids from Hawaii - So Disgusting :(
In a message dated 11/19/2002 6:02:31 PM Eastern Standard Time, mlinnolt@alum.mitdot edu writes:
Whats the value of all these complex predictions if they are totally wrong! This is likely the last meteor report I feel like doing ...
I have been explaining to people all day that predictions of meteor outbursts such as was just experienced in the past 24 hours were all but unknown just several years ago. We have made tremendous inroads in anticipating Earth's interaction through such ultradense streams of material, yet we have seen remarkable successes over the past four years.
Unfortunately, trying to forecast the brightnesses of such meteor outbursts are still in the formative stages to say the least. Logically, since last year's 4 and 7-rev. displays produced so many bright meteors, it was generally felt that we would see similarly bright meteors this year. But it is obvious that this year's crop must have contained far smaller dust-sized particles which loaned itself to producing far fainter displays as compared to the bright ones experienced in 2001.
-- joe rao