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Re: (meteorobs) (LINMI) Leonids from Hawaii - So Disgusting :(

The smaller particle size for the 10UT stream might explain the lower counts under poor LM as we had. But, my counts showed a significant variation in mean brightness (moderately faint 10-11:30UT, bright 12-12:30UT, and faint again 14-14:30UT) Even the bright period showed poor activity - a ZHR only around two to three hundred - hardly "storm" level by any measure!

The difference from last year was striking. I expected to see a barrage of earthgrazers hit just at radiant rise around 10:00UT, but the only activity was from SPO and ANT!
Last year the show began with a bang in that fashion, so I was perplexed this time - (was my clock wrong, did I get the date wrong or something, I thought?) But it soon became clear, as the radiant rose higher, that the 10UT "peak" just wasn't anywhere near what was predicted.

Well, I guess I was sore because I really believed the predictions of the various experts, and I planned my actions accordingly. I bet big and lost hard. The talk on meteorobs and other sites exhuded such high confidence of the storm at 10UT, I just couldn't believe it would go wrong. But thats what happened. I'm sure I am not the only one that was disappointed.

I guess what I am trying to say is unrestrained enthusiasm and hype, when based upon a limited data set and experience is asking for trouble. The lay public's impression of Astronomy isn't very good to begin with. When we advertise a major show that flops, again and again, it badly tarnishes our image. And the public's image of Astronomy counts. Ultimately, the availability of competitive public funding is determined by what the people believe is important.

Mike Linnolt   

--- Skywayinc@aol.com wrote:
> In a message dated 11/19/2002 6:02:31 PM Eastern
> Standard Time, 
> mlinnolt@alum.mitdot edu writes:
> 
> 
> > Whats the value of all these complex predictions
> if they are totally wrong! 
> > This is likely the last meteor report I feel like
> doing ...
> > 
>        I have been explaining to people all day that
> predictions of meteor 
> outbursts such as was just experienced in the past
> 24 hours were all but 
> unknown just several years ago.  We have made
> tremendous inroads in 
> anticipating Earth's interaction through such
> ultradense streams of material, 
> yet we have seen remarkable successes over the past
> four years.  
> 
>        Unfortunately, trying to forecast the
> brightnesses of such meteor 
> outbursts are still in the formative stages to say
> the least.  Logically, 
> since last year's 4 and 7-rev. displays produced so
> many bright meteors, it 
> was generally felt that we would see similarly
> bright meteors this year.  But 
> it is obvious that this year's crop must have
> contained far smaller 
> dust-sized particles which loaned itself to
> producing far fainter displays as 
> compared to the bright ones experienced in 2001. 
> 
> -- joe rao    
>
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