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(meteorobs) Re: Chances of another metoer storm?
Mark and All,
The odds are that there will not any more Leonid "storms" until 2099. In
2032, 2065 and 2098 there may be a repeat of the 1998 fireball shower.
This was not a storm per se but certainly left a lasting impression on
those who saw it.
Rates of several hundred per hour are possible in the period 2032-2034
and 2065-2067. This is better than your average Leonid rates.
There are chances of other outbursts from the Alpha Monocerotids in 2005
and the Alpha Aurigids in 2007. There is also the possibility of
unexpected activity. That is why observers are needed to monitor the
night skies as much as possible even when nothing notable is expected.
Clear Skies!
Robert Lunsford
Mark777ebay@aol.com wrote:
> hi- I was just curious as to the thoughts of the experts on here... what are
> the chances that in the next couple years or in 33 years (despite the Jupiter
> problem) that there will be another storm or significant showing?
>
> I have always been puzzled as to how it is known that in 33 years we will
> have no meteors? I obviously don't know the science in this field.. but is
> it not possible that Jupiter's pull might pull a previously unidentified
> cloud of meteors into our viewing stream?
>
> Along those lines, I was wondering... is it possible that we might encounter
> a meteor storm from an unexpected source???
>
> I guess... my questoin is... how much do we know and how much hope can a
> meteor enthusiast have for another showing....?
>
> thanks for any expert advice on these matters-
>
> Mark
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